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Do Natural Hazards Cause International Migration?

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  • Jasmin Katrin Gröschl
  • Thomas Steinwachs

Abstract

The estimated amount of people affected by natural hazards stands at a staggering number of about 243 million people per year. While not all of the affected move across borders, international migration potentially provides an adaptation mechanism to natural hazards. The aim of this paper is to assess whether natural hazards induce international migration from a macro perspective. We construct a stylized theoretical gravity model of migration that includes hazards as random shocks. To estimate this model, we deploy exogenous data on geological and meteorological hazards from 1980 to 2010. We combine this data with the World Bank’s Global Bilateral Migration Database. Overall, our results suggest little evidence that natural hazards affect medium to long-run international migration. However, considering heterogeneity across income groups, we find that particularly middle-income countries experience significant push and pull effects on migration from natural hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2016. "Do Natural Hazards Cause International Migration?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6145, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6145
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    Cited by:

    1. Michel Beine & Christopher R Parsons, 2017. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration: Redux," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 386-402.
    2. Michel Beine & Lionel Jeusette, 2018. "A Meta-Analysis of the Literature on Climate Change and Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 7417, CESifo.
    3. Amelia Aburn & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Gone with the Wind: International Migration," Working Papers 1708, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2017.
    4. Eugenia Chernina, 2019. "Natural Shocks And Migration Decisions: The Case Of Kyrgyzstan," HSE Working papers WP BRP 214/EC/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    6. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Ilan Noy, 2017. "To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 403-420.
    8. Trinh, Trong-Anh & Feeny, Simon & Posso, Alberto, 2021. "The impact of natural disasters on migration: findings from Vietnam," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 479-510, September.
    9. Abel, Guy & Brottrager, Michael & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Muttarak, Raya, 2018. "Climate, Conflict and Forced Migration," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 272, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    10. Michael Berlemann & Thi Xuyen Tran, 2020. "Climate-Related Hazards and Internal Migration Empirical Evidence for Rural Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 385-409, July.
    11. Antonio Mannella & Marco Di Ludovico & Antonio Sabino & Andrea Prota & Mauro Dolce & Gaetano Manfredi, 2017. "Analysis of the Population Assistance and Returning Home in the Reconstruction Process of the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-20, August.
    12. Cristina Cattaneo & Timothy Foreman, 2021. "Climate Change, International Migration, and Interstate Conflict," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2109, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    13. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    14. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    15. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann & Adriana Cardozo & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2021. "Migration and Asylum Flows to Germany: New Insights Into the Motives," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 210-223.
    16. Arthur Grimes & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2018. "Moving towards happiness," Working Papers 18_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    17. Yannay Spitzer & Gaspare Tortorici & Ariell Zimran, 2020. "International Migration Responses to Natural Disasters: Evidence from Modern Europe's Deadliest Earthquake," NBER Working Papers 27506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural hazards; international migration; gravity model; heterogeneity across income groups;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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