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The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina Cattaneo

    (FEEM and CMCC)

  • Giovanni Peri

    (University of California, Davis)

Abstract

Climate change, especially the warming trend experienced by several countries, could affect agricultural productivity. As a consequence, rural incomes will change, and with them the incentives for people to remain in rural areas. Using data from 116 countries between 1960 and 2000, we analyze the effect of differential warming trends across countries on the probability of either migrating out of the country or from rural to urban areas. We find that higher temperatures increased migration rates to urban areas and other countries in middle income economies. In poor countries, higher temperatures reduced the probability of migration to cities or to other countries, consistent with the presence of severe liquidity constraints. In middle-income countries, migration represents an important margin of adjustment to global warming, potentially contributing to structural change and even increasing income per worker. Such a mechanism, however, does not seem to work in poor economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Cattaneo & Giovanni Peri, 2015. "The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures," Working Papers 2015.87, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2015.87
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:oup:cesifo:v:63:y:2017:i:4:p:560-594. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Michel Beine & Lionel Jeusette, 2018. "A Meta-Analysis of the Literature on Climate Change and Migration," CREA Discussion Paper Series 18-05, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    3. Isabelle Chort & Maelys de la Rupelle, 2017. "Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers DT/2017/04, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    4. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:5:p:1405-:d:144280 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2017. "Searching for grouped patterns of heterogeneity in the climate-migration link," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 321, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    6. repec:oup:cesifo:v:63:y:2017:i:4:p:445-480. is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:oup:cesifo:v:63:y:2017:i:4:p:353-385. is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Charles F Mason, 2017. "Climate Change and Migration: A Dynamic Model," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 421-444.
    9. Valentina Bosetti & Cristina Cattaneo & Giovanni Peri, 2018. "Should they stay or should they go? Climate Migrants and Local Conflicts," NBER Working Papers 24447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:oup:cesifo:v:63:y:2017:i:4:p:500-528. is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Amelia Aburn & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Gone with the Wind: International Migration," Working Papers 1708, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2017.
    12. Linguère Mously Mbaye, 2017. "Climate change, natural disasters, and migration," IZA World of Labor, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), pages 346-346, March.
    13. Cristina Cattaneo & Valentina Bosetti, 2017. "Climate-induced International Migration and Conflicts," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 500-528.
    14. Chiara Falco & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate change and Migration: Is Agriculture the Main Channel?," IEFE Working Papers 100, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    15. Jasmin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2017. "Do Natural Hazards Cause International Migration?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 445-480.
    16. Leah Platt Boustan & Matthew E. Kahn & Paul W. Rhode & Maria Lucia Yanguas, 2017. "The Effect of Natural Disasters on Economic Activity in US Counties: A Century of Data," NBER Working Papers 23410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Warming; Emigration; Rural-Urban Migration; Agricultural Productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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