IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae18/277488.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: Is there a Causal Relationship ?

Author

Listed:
  • Olper, A.
  • Falco, C.
  • Galeotti, M.

Abstract

Migration and climate change are two of the most important challenges the world currently faces. They are connected as climate change may stimulate migration. One of the sectors most strongly affected by climate change is agriculture, where most of the world s poor are employed. Climate change may affect agricultural productivity and hence migration because of its impact on average temperatures and rainfall and because it increases the frequency and intensity of weather shocks. This paper uses data from 1960 to 2010, for more than 150 countries, to analyse the relationship between weather variation, agricultural productivity and migration. Our main findings show that, in line with theoretical predictions, negative shocks to agricultural productivity caused by weather fluctuations significantly increase migration in middle and lower income countries but not in the poorest and in the rich countries. Acknowledgement :

Suggested Citation

  • Olper, A. & Falco, C. & Galeotti, M., 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: Is there a Causal Relationship ?," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277488, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:277488
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.277488
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/277488/files/1051.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.277488?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    2. Berkowitz, Daniel & Caner, Mehmet & Fang, Ying, 2012. "The validity of instruments revisited," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 255-266.
    3. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
    4. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    5. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    6. Marchiori, Luca & Maystadt, Jean-François & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 355-374.
    7. Andrew Dillon & Valerie Mueller & Sheu Salau, 2011. "Migratory Responses to Agricultural Risk in Northern Nigeria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1048-1061.
    8. Olivier Deschênes & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Extreme Weather Events, Mortality, and Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 659-681, November.
    9. Linguère Mously Mbaye, 2017. "Climate change, natural disasters, and migration," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 346-346, March.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    11. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    12. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    13. Burke, M. & Craxton, M. & Kolstad, C.D. & Onda, C. & Allcott, H. & Baker, E. & Barrage, L. & Carson, R. & Gillingham, K. & Graff-Zivin, J. & Greenstone, M. & Hallegatte, S. & Hanemann, W.M. & Heal, G., 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics," ISU General Staff Papers 3565, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Burke, M & Craxton, M & Kolstad, CD & Onda, C & Allcott, H & Baker, E & Barrage, L & Carson, R & Gillingham, K & Graf-Zivin, J & Greenstone, M & Hallegatte, S & Hanemann, WM & Heal, G & Hsiang, S & Jo, 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics," University of California at Santa Barbara, Recent Works in Economics qt4tc5d9pb, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    15. Alem, Yonas & Maurel, Mathilde & Millock, Katrin, 2016. "Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 665, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    16. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Pesce, Giovanni, 2015. "Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 434-468, August.
    17. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    18. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
    19. Clark Gray & Richard Bilsborrow, 2013. "Environmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(4), pages 1217-1241, August.
    20. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    21. Solomon M. Hsiang, 2016. "Climate Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 22181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Cai, Ruohong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Oppenheimer, Michael & Pytlikova, Mariola, 2016. "Climate variability and international migration: The importance of the agricultural linkage," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 135-151.
    23. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    24. Mathilde Maurel & Michele Tuccio, 2016. "Climate Instability, Urbanisation and International Migration," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 735-752, May.
    25. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    26. Jean-François Maystadt & Olivier Ecker, 2014. "Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1157-1182.
    27. Stark, Oded & Bloom, David E, 1985. "The New Economics of Labor Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 173-178, May.
    28. Zaneta Kubik & Mathilde Maurel, 2016. "Weather Shocks, Agricultural Production and Migration: Evidence from Tanzania," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 665-680, May.
    29. Borjas, George J, 1985. "Assimilation, Changes in Cohort Quality, and the Earnings of Immigrants," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(4), pages 463-489, October.
    30. Borjas, George J, 1987. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 531-553, September.
    31. Clark Gray & Erika Wise, 2016. "Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 555-568, April.
    32. Katrina Jessoe & Dale T. Manning & J. Edward Taylor, 2018. "Climate Change and Labour Allocation in Rural Mexico: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 230-261, February.
    33. F. Daniel Hidalgo & Suresh Naidu & Simeon Nichter & Neal Richardson, 2010. "Economic Determinants of Land Invasions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 505-523, August.
    34. Drabo, Alassane & Mbaye, Linguère Mously, 2015. "Natural disasters, migration and education: an empirical analysis in developing countries," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 767-796, December.
    35. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Schlenker, Wolfram, 2014. "Empirical studies on agricultural impacts and adaptation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 555-561.
    36. Marshall Burke & Kyle Emerick, 2016. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 106-140, August.
    37. Solomon Hsiang, 2016. "Climate Econometrics," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 43-75, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dets Igor A., 2020. "Possible Impact of Global Warming and Other Factors Affecting Migration in Russia with Emphasis on Siberia," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 39(3), pages 111-123, September.
    2. Chiara Falco & Franco Donzelli & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Alisa Ableeva & Guzel Salimova & Rasul Gusmanov & Tatyana Lubova & Oleg Efimov & Almira Farrahetdinova, 2019. "The Role of Agriculture in the Formation of Macroeconomic Indicators of National Economy," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 15(4), pages 183-193.
    4. Danilo Bertoni & Daniele Cavicchioli & Franco Donzelli & Giovanni Ferrazzi & Dario G. Frisio & Roberto Pretolani & Elena Claire Ricci & Vera Ventura, 2018. "Recent Contributions of Agricultural Economics Research in the Field of Sustainable Development," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(12), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Chambru, Cédric, 2020. "Weather shocks, poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Mary Nsabagwa & Anthony Mwije & Alex Nimusiima & Ronald Inguula Odongo & Bob Alex Ogwang & Peter Wasswa & Isaac Mugume & Charles Basalirwa & Faridah Nalwanga & Robert Kakuru & Sylvia Nahayo & Julianne, 2021. "Examining the Ability of Communities to Cope with Food Insecurity due to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(19), pages 1-18, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiara Falco & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate change and Migration: Is Agriculture the Main Channel?," IEFE Working Papers 100, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    3. Chiara Falco & Franco Donzelli & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Dimitri Defrance & Esther Delesalle & Flore Gubert, 2020. "Is migration drought-induced in Mali? An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987-2009 period," Working Papers DT/2020/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    7. Michel Beine & Lionel Jeusette, 2018. "A Meta-Analysis of the Literature on Climate Change and Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 7417, CESifo.
    8. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2019. "Climate change, migration, and irrigation," Working Papers halshs-02107098, HAL.
    9. Burzynski, Michal & de Melo, Jaime & Deuster, Christoph & Docquier, Frédéric, 2019. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," CEPR Discussion Papers 13997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Mueller, Valerie & Sheriff, Glenn & Dou, Xiaoya & Gray, Clark, 2020. "Temporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Taraz, Vis, 2018. "Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 205-219.
    12. Simone BERTOLI & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Hillel RAPOPORT & Ilse RUYSSEN, 2019. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a multilevel analysis," Working Paper c5999d24-4da2-42c5-8c94-e, Agence française de développement.
    13. Pierre Mérel & Matthew Gammans, 2021. "Climate Econometrics: Can the Panel Approach Account for Long‐Run Adaptation?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1207-1238, August.
    14. Michel BEINE & Lionel JEUSETTE, 2021. "A Meta-analysis of the Literature on Climate Change and Migration," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    15. Nguyen, Cuong Viet, 2021. "Do weather extremes induce people to move? Evidence from Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 118-141.
    16. Michel Beine & Christopher R Parsons, 2017. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration: Redux," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 386-402.
    17. Charles D. Kolstad & Frances C. Moore, 2019. "Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations," NBER Working Papers 25537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
    19. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    20. Huang, Kaixing & Zhao, Hong & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia & Findlay, Christopher, 2020. "The impact of climate change on the labor allocation: Empirical evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:277488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.