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Weather Shocks, Agricultural Production and Migration: Evidence from Tanzania

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  • Zaneta Kubik
  • Mathilde Maurel

Abstract

We analyse whether Tanzanian rural households engage in internal migration as a response to weather-related shocks. We hypothesise that, when exposed to such shocks and a consecutive crop yield reduction, rural households use migration as a risk management strategy. Our findings confirm that for an average household, a 1 per cent reduction in agricultural income induced by weather shock increases the probability of migration by 13 percentage points on average within the following year. However, this effect is significant only for households in the middle of wealth distribution, suggesting that the choice of migration as an adaptation strategy depends on initial endowment. What is more, the proposed mechanism applies to households whose income is highly dependent on agriculture, but is not important for diversified livelihoods.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaneta Kubik & Mathilde Maurel, 2016. "Weather Shocks, Agricultural Production and Migration: Evidence from Tanzania," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 665-680, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:52:y:2016:i:5:p:665-680
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2015.1107049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2003. "Poverty-focused social accounting matrices for Tanzania," TMD discussion papers 112, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Deuster, 2019. "Climate change, education and mobility in Africa," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp1904, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia, NOVAFRICA.
    2. Isaure Delaporte & Mathilde Maurel, 2018. "Adaptation to climate change in Bangladesh," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 49-62, January.
    3. Olper, A. & Falco, C. & Galeotti, M., 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: Is there a Causal Relationship ?," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277488, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Burzynski, Michal & de Melo, Jaime & Deuster, Christoph & Docquier, Frédéric, 2019. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," CEPR Discussion Papers 13997, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Chiara Falco & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate change and Migration: Is Agriculture the Main Channel?," IEFE Working Papers 100, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    6. Yalew, Amsalu W. & Hirte, Georg & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2017. "Economic effects of climate change in developing countries: Economy-wide and regional analysis for Ethiopia," CEPIE Working Papers 10/17, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    7. Danilo Bertoni & Daniele Cavicchioli & Franco Donzelli & Giovanni Ferrazzi & Dario G. Frisio & Roberto Pretolani & Elena Claire Ricci & Vera Ventura, 2018. "Recent Contributions of Agricultural Economics Research in the Field of Sustainable Development," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(12), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Amsalu Woldie Yalew & Georg Hirte & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Stefan Tscharaktschiew, 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Economic Development in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, September.
    9. Haile, B. & Azzarri, C. & Heady, D. & You, L., 2018. "Climate, climate shocks and child nutrition in Africa’s diverse farming systems," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275928, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Chambru, Cédric, 2019. "Weather shocks, poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy," Working Papers unige:120722, University of Geneva, Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History.
    11. Chiara Falco & Franco Donzelli & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.

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