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Agricultural growth, poverty, and nutrition in Tanzania


  • Pauw, Karl
  • Thurlow, James


Rapid economic growth does not appear to have significantly improved poverty and nutrition outcomes in Tanzania. We link recent production trends to household incomes using a regionalized, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model. Results indicate some inconsistency between recent growth and poverty measurements in Tanzania. We also find that the structure of economic growth may have constrained the rate of poverty reduction. Agricultural growth has been driven by larger-scale farmers who are less likely to be poor; and has been concentrated among crops grown in specific regions of the country. Slow expansion of food crops and livestock also explain the weak relationship between agricultural growth and nutrition outcomes. We find that accelerating agricultural growth, particularly in maize, strengthens the growth–poverty relationship and enhances households’ caloric availability, while also contributing significantly to growth itself.

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  • Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Agricultural growth, poverty, and nutrition in Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 795-804.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:36:y:2011:i:6:p:795-804
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2011.09.002

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Holden, Stein, 2013. "Input subsidies and demand for improved maize: Relative prices and household heterogeneity matter!," CLTS Working Papers 6/13, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies.
    2. Emiliano Magrini & Mauro Vigani, 2016. "Technology adoption and the multiple dimensions of food security: the case of maize in Tanzania," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(4), pages 707-726, August.
    3. Channing Arndt & William Farmer & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2012. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 378-393, August.
    4. Diao, Xinshen & Kennedy, Adam & Mabiso, Athur & Pradesha, Angga, 2013. "Economywide impact of maize export bans on agricultural growth and household welfare in Tanzania: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis:," IFPRI discussion papers 1287, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. James Thurlow & Giacomo Branca & Erika Felix & Irini Maltsoglou & Luis E. Rincón, 2016. "Producing Biofuels in Low-Income Countries: An Integrated Environmental and Economic Assessment for Tanzania," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(2), pages 153-171, June.
    6. Channing Arndt & M. Azhar Hussain & E. Samuel Jones & Virgulino Nhate & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2013. "Explaining the Evolution of Poverty: The Case of Mozambique," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(1), pages 206-206.
    7. Katia Covarrubias & Longin Nsiima & Alberto Zezza, 2012. "Livestock and Livelihoods in Rural Tanzania : A Descriptive Analysis of the 2009 National Panel Survey," World Bank Other Operational Studies 17886, The World Bank.
    8. Martine Rutten & Andrzej Tabeau & Frans Godeschalk, 2013. "A new methodology for incorporating nutrition indicators in economy-wide scenario analyses," FOODSECURE Technical papers 1, LEI Wageningen UR.
    9. Luca Tiberti & Marco Tiberti, 2015. "Rural Policies, Price Change and Poverty in Tanzania: An Agricultural Household Model-Based Assessment," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 24(2), pages 193-229.
    10. Allen, Summer L. & Badiane, Ousmane & Ulimwengu, John M., 2012. "Government expenditures, social outcomes, and marginal productivity of agricultural inputs: a case study for Tanzania," IFPRI discussion papers 1172, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier, 2014. "Simulating economic growth effects on food and nutrition security in Yemen: A new macro–micro modeling approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 100-113.
    12. Quintero, Julián A. & Cardona, Carlos A. & Felix, Erika & Moncada, Jonathan & Sánchez, Óscar J. & Gutiérrez, Luis F., 2012. "Techno-economic analysis of bioethanol production in Africa: Tanzania case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 442-454.
    13. Felix, Mwema, 2015. "Future prospect and sustainability of wood fuel resources in Tanzania," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 856-862.
    14. Pauw, Karl & Beck, Ulrik & Mussa, Richard, 2014. "Did rapid smallholder-led agricultural growth fail to reduce rural poverty? Making sense of Malawi's poverty puzzle," WIDER Working Paper Series 123, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. van Ruijven, Bas J. & O’Neill, Brian C. & Chateau, Jean, 2015. "Methods for including income distribution in global CGE models for long-term climate change research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 530-543.
    16. J. Edward Taylor & Karen Thome, 2012. "A Methodology for Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) of Cash Transfers," One Pager 183, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    17. Akbar, Muhammad & Jamil, Faisal, 2012. "Monetary and fiscal policies' effect on agricultural growth: GMM estimation and simulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1909-1920.
    18. Arndt Channing & Demery Lionel & McKay Andrew & Tarp Finn, 2015. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in Tanzania," WIDER Working Paper Series 051, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Watmough, Gary R. & Atkinson, Peter M. & Saikia, Arupjyoti & Hutton, Craig W., 2016. "Understanding the Evidence Base for Poverty–Environment Relationships using Remotely Sensed Satellite Data: An Example from Assam, India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 188-203.
    20. Wagstaff, Adam & Eozenou, Patrick Hoang-Vu, 2014. "CATA meets IMPOV: a unified approach to measuring financial protection in health," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6861, The World Bank.
    21. Hichaambwa, Munguzwe & Jayne, T. S., 2014. "Poverty Reduction Potential of Increasing Smallholder Access to Land," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 171873, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    22. Ecker, Olivier & Mabiso, Athur & Kennedy, Adam & Diao, Xinshen 22905, 2011. "Making agriculture pro-nutrition: Opportunities in Tanzania," IFPRI discussion papers 1124, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    23. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & Uaiene, Rafael & Mazunda, John, 2012. "Agricultural growth and poverty in Mozambique: Technical analysis in support of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP)," MSSP working papers 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    24. Shenggen Fan & Joanna Brzeska, 2015. "The Nexus between Agriculture and Nutrition: Do Growth Patterns and Conditional Factors Matter?," Working Papers id:7519, eSocialSciences.


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