Agricultural growth, poverty, and nutrition in Tanzania
Rapid economic growth does not appear to have significantly improved poverty and nutrition outcomes in Tanzania. We link recent production trends to household incomes using a regionalized, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model. Results indicate some inconsistency between recent growth and poverty measurements in Tanzania. We also find that the structure of economic growth may have constrained the rate of poverty reduction. Agricultural growth has been driven by larger-scale farmers who are less likely to be poor; and has been concentrated among crops grown in specific regions of the country. Slow expansion of food crops and livestock also explain the weak relationship between agricultural growth and nutrition outcomes. We find that accelerating agricultural growth, particularly in maize, strengthens the growth–poverty relationship and enhances households’ caloric availability, while also contributing significantly to growth itself.
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