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Climate Instability, Urbanisation and International Migration

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  • Mathilde Maurel
  • Michele Tuccio

Abstract

This paper focuses on climate-induced migration. We construct a simple theoretical model where, in a first step, climate shocks accelerate the transition from the traditional to the modern sector, leading rural workers to move to urban centres within national borders, while in a second step, downward pressures on wages due to the greater labour supply in cities push people to engage in international migration. To test this hypothesis, we exploit a rich panel dataset, displaying a representative picture of bilateral migration flows and climatic data across 222 countries for the period 1960–2000. Findings suggest that in the next few years the climate-induced growth rate of migrant stocks might be in a range between 8.6 per cent and 12.8 per cent, especially from developing countries, where the level of rural employment is more likely to be affected by climatic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Maurel & Michele Tuccio, 2016. "Climate Instability, Urbanisation and International Migration," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 735-752, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:52:y:2016:i:5:p:735-752
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2015.1121240
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    1. Francesco Nicolli & Giulia Bettin, 2012. "Does climate change foster emigration from less developed countries? Evidence from bilateral data," Working Papers 201210, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.
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