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Climate Instability, Urbanisation and International Migration

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  • Mathilde Maurel
  • Michele Tuccio

Abstract

This paper focuses on climate-induced migration. We construct a simple theoretical model where, in a first step, climate shocks accelerate the transition from the traditional to the modern sector, leading rural workers to move to urban centres within national borders, while in a second step, downward pressures on wages due to the greater labour supply in cities push people to engage in international migration. To test this hypothesis, we exploit a rich panel dataset, displaying a representative picture of bilateral migration flows and climatic data across 222 countries for the period 1960–2000. Findings suggest that in the next few years the climate-induced growth rate of migrant stocks might be in a range between 8.6 per cent and 12.8 per cent, especially from developing countries, where the level of rural employment is more likely to be affected by climatic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Maurel & Michele Tuccio, 2016. "Climate Instability, Urbanisation and International Migration," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 735-752, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:52:y:2016:i:5:p:735-752
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2015.1121240
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco Nicolli & Giulia Bettin, 2012. "Does climate change foster emigration from less developed countries? Evidence from bilateral data," Working Papers 201210, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michel Beine & Lionel Jeusette, 2018. "A Meta-Analysis of the Literature on Climate Change and Migration," CREA Discussion Paper Series 18-05, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    2. Dibeh, Ghassan & Fakih, Ali & Marrouch, Walid, 2017. "Decision to Emigrate Amongst the Youth in Lebanon," IZA Discussion Papers 10493, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Isaure Delaporte & Mathilde Maurel, 2018. "Adaptation to climate change in Bangladesh," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 49-62, January.
    4. Olper, A. & Falco, C. & Galeotti, M., 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: Is there a Causal Relationship ?," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277488, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. repec:eee:wdevel:v:110:y:2018:i:c:p:268-282 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Chiara Falco & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate change and Migration: Is Agriculture the Main Channel?," IEFE Working Papers 100, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice:Evidence from Tanzania," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17037, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Alem, Yonas & Maurel, Mathilde & Millock, Katrin, 2016. "Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 665, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    9. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice: Evidence from Tanzania," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01599362, HAL.
    10. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:5:p:1405-:d:144280 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Michel Beine & Lionel Jeusette, 2018. "A Meta-Analysis of the Literature on Climate Change and Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 7417, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Yonas Alem & Mathilde Maurel & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Weather Variability: An Instrumental Variables Probit Analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01955941, HAL.

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