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Climate instability, urbanization and international migration

Author

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  • Mathilde Maurel

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)

  • Michele Tuccio

    (University of Southampton)

Abstract

This paper focuses on climate-induced migration. We construct a simple theoretical model where, in a first step, climate shocks accelerate the transition from the traditional to the modern sector, leading rural workers to move to urban centres within national borders, while in a second step, downward pressures on wages due to the greater labour supply in cities push people to engage in international migration. To test this hypothesis, we exploit a rich panel dataset, displaying a representative picture of bilateral migration flows and climatic data across 222 countries for the period 1960–2000. Findings suggest that in the next few years the climate-induced growth rate of migrant stocks might be in a range between 8.6 per cent and 12.8 per cent, especially from developing countries, where the level of rural employment is more likely to be affected by climatic shocks.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Maurel & Michele Tuccio, 2016. "Climate instability, urbanization and international migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01225458, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-01225458
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01225458
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco Nicolli & Giulia Bettin, 2012. "Does climate change foster emigration from less developed countries? Evidence from bilateral data," Working Papers 201210, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.
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