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The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions

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  • Schlenker, Wolfram
  • Hanemann, W. Michael
  • Fisher, Anthony C.

Abstract

We link farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables for counties east of the 100th meridian, the historic boundary of agriculture not primarily dependent on irrigation. Degree days, a non-linear transformation of the climatic variables suggested by agronomic experiments as more relevant to crop yield gives an improved fit and increased robustness. Estimated coefficients are consistent with the experimental results. The model is employed to estimate the potential impacts on farmland values for a range of recent warming scenarios. The predictions are very robust and more than 75% of the counties in our sample show a statistically significant effect, ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with losses in the aggregate that can become quite large under scenarios involving sustained heavy use of fossil fuels.

Suggested Citation

  • Schlenker, Wolfram & Hanemann, W. Michael & Fisher, Anthony C., 2004. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt0801j7s0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt0801j7s0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    agriculture; climate changes; econometric models; global warming; Life Sciences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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