More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields
This article proposes the use of moment functions and maximum entropy techniques as a flexible approach for estimating conditional crop yield distributions. We present a moment-based model that extends previous approaches, and is easily estimated using standard econometric estimators. Predicted moments under alternative regimes are used as constraints in a maximum entropy framework to analyze the distributional impacts of switching regimes. An empirical application for Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas upland cotton demonstrates how climate and irrigation affect the shape of the yield distribution, and allows us to illustrate several advantages of our moment-based maximum entropy approach. Copyright 2012, Oxford University Press.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 94 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
- Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
- Orley Ashenfelter & Karl Storchmann, 2010.
"Measuring the Economic Effect of Global Warming on Viticulture Using Auction, Retail, and Wholesale Prices,"
Review of Industrial Organization,
Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 51-64, August.
- Orley C. Ashenfelter & Karl Storchmann, 2010. "Measuring the Economic Effect of Global Warming on Viticulture Using Auction, Retail, and Wholesale Prices," NBER Working Papers 16037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ashenfelter, Orley & Storchmann, Karl, 2010. "Measuring The Economic Effect Of Global Warming On Viticulture Using Auction, Retail And Wholesale Prices," Working Papers 90482, American Association of Wine Economists.
- Ines Kapphan & Pierluigi Calanca & Annelie Holzkaemper, 2011. "Climate Change, Weather Insurance Design and Hedging Effectiveness," IED Working paper 11-17, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521623940 is not listed on IDEAS
- Wu, Ximing, 2003. "Calculation of maximum entropy densities with application to income distribution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 347-354, August.
- William D. Nordhaus, 2011. "The Economics of Tail Events with an Application to Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 240-257, Summer.
- Bruce J. Sherrick & Fabio C. Zanini & Gary D. Schnitkey & Scott H. Irwin, 2004.
"Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 406-419.
- Zanini, Fabio C. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001. "Crop Insurance Valuation Under Alternative Yield Distributions," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18953, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 2011. "Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 275-292, Summer.
- Prabhat Barnwal & Koji Kotani, 2010.
"Impact of variation in climatic factors on crop yield: A case of rice crop in Andhra Pradesh, India,"
EMS_2010_17, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
- Barnwal, Prabhat & Kotani, Koji, 2013. "Climatic impacts across agricultural crop yield distributions: An application of quantile regression on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh, India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 95-109.
- Hennessy, David A., 2009.
"Crop Yield Skewness and the Normal Distribution,"
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
- Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010.
"Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data,"
MIT Press Books,
The MIT Press,
edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, June.
- Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262232197, June.
- Phillips, Donald L. & Lee, Jeffrey J. & Dodson, Rusty F., 1996. "Sensitivity of the US corn belt to climate change and elevated CO2: I. Corn and soybean yields," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 481-502, December.
- john M. Antle, 2010. "Asymmetry, Partial Moments, and Production Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1294-1309.
- Louhichi, Kamel & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Janssen, Sander & Flichman, Guillermo & Blanco, Maria & Hengsdijk, Huib & Heckelei, Thomas & Berentsen, Paul & Lansink, Alfons Oude & Ittersum, Martin Van, 2010. "FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(8), pages 585-597, October.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2010.
"Fat Tails, Thin Tails, and Climate Change Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
16353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
- D. Ormoneit & H. White, 1999. "An efficient algorithm to compute maximum entropy densities," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-140.
- Janssen, Sander & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2007. "Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: A review of bio-economic farm models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 622-636, June.
- Kim, Man-Keun & Pang, Arwin, 2009. "Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield and Production Risk," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 32(2), June.
- Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
- Olivier Desch�nes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
- Gallagher, Paul W., 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances," Staff General Research Papers 10779, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Semaan, Josephine & Flichman, Guillermo & Scardigno, Alessandra & Steduto, Pasquale, 2007. "Analysis of nitrate pollution control policies in the irrigated agriculture of Apulia Region (Southern Italy): A bio-economic modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 357-367, May.
- Just, Richard E. & Pope, Rulon D., 1978. "Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 67-86, February.
- David A. Hennessy, 2009. "Crop Yield Skewness Under Law of the Minimum Technology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 197-208.
- Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
- Antle, John M, 1983. "Testing the Stochastic Structure of Production: A Flexible Moment-based Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(3), pages 192-201, July.
- Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:94:y:2012:i:5:p:1037-1054. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.