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Estimating Decadal Climate Variability Effects on Crop Yields: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach

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  • Huang, Pei
  • McCarl, Bruce A.

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Pei & McCarl, Bruce A., 2014. "Estimating Decadal Climate Variability Effects on Crop Yields: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169828, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:169828
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.169828
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/169828/files/Submit_for_AAEA.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernandez, Mario Andres, 2013. "Decadal Climate Variability: Economic Implications In Agriculture And Water In The Missouri River Basin," 2013 Conference, August 28-30, 2013, Christchurch, New Zealand 160199, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. David A. Hennessy, 2009. "Crop Yield Skewness Under Law of the Minimum Technology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 197-208.
    3. Tian Yu & Bruce A. Babcock, 2010. "Are U.S. Corn and Soybeans Becoming More Drought Tolerant?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1310-1323.
    4. Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Scarpa, Riccardo, 2008. "Improving multi-site benefit functions via Bayesian model averaging: A new approach to benefit transfer," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 50-68, July.
    5. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    6. Bruce J. Sherrick & Fabio C. Zanini & Gary D. Schnitkey & Scott H. Irwin, 2004. "Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 406-419.
    7. Chen, Chi-Chung & McCarl, Bruce A., 2000. "The Value Of Enso Information To Agriculture: Consideration Of Event Strength And Trade," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
    9. Verbeke, Geert & Lesaffre, Emmanuel, 1997. "The effect of misspecifying the random-effects distribution in linear mixed models for longitudinal data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 541-556, February.
    10. Wendimagegn Ghidey & Emmanuel Lesaffre & Paul Eilers, 2004. "Smooth Random Effects Distribution in a Linear Mixed Model," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 945-953, December.
    11. Richard M. Adams & Kelly J. Bryant & Bruce A. Mccarl & David M. Legler & James O'Brien & Andrew Solow & Rodney Weiher, 1995. "Value Of Improved Long‐Range Weather Information," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 10-19, July.
    12. Balcombe, Kelvin & Burton, Michael & Rigby, Dan, 2011. "Skew and attribute non-attendance within the Bayesian mixed logit model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 446-461.
    13. Daowen Zhang & Marie Davidian, 2001. "Linear Mixed Models with Flexible Distributions of Random Effects for Longitudinal Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 795-802, September.
    14. Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
    15. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, February.
    16. Jesse Tack & Ardian Harri & Keith Coble, 2012. "More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1037-1054.
    17. Balcombe, Kelvin & Chalak, Ali & Fraser, Iain, 2009. "Model selection for the mixed logit with Bayesian estimation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 226-237, March.
    18. Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
    19. R.B. Arellano-Valle & H. Bolfarine & V.H. Lachos, 2007. "Bayesian Inference for Skew-normal Linear Mixed Models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 663-682.
    20. Jara, Alejandro & Quintana, Fernando & San Marti­n, Ernesto, 2008. "Linear mixed models with skew-elliptical distributions: A Bayesian approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 5033-5045, July.
    21. Layton, David F. & Levine, Richard A., 2003. "How Much Does the Far Future Matter? A Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis of the Public's Willingness to Mitigate Ecological Impacts of Climate Change," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 533-544, January.
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    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries; Productivity Analysis;

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