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The Value Of Enso Information To Agriculture: Consideration Of Event Strength And Trade


  • Chen, Chi-Chung
  • McCarl, Bruce A.


The agricultural value of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase knowledge is measured in a value-of-information framework using economic models. We examine the value of considering the full distribution of ENSO phase strength effects as opposed to average ENSO phase strength effects, as well as the implications of considering ENSO impacts on the rest of the world (ROW). A stochastic U.S. agricultural sector model linked with a global trade model is used to assess the value of ENSO phase information. When the full distribution of ENSO phase strength is considered, the value of phase information increases twofold with respect to the average ENSO effects.

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  • Chen, Chi-Chung & McCarl, Bruce A., 2000. "The Value Of Enso Information To Agriculture: Consideration Of Event Strength And Trade," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(02), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30887

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    1. Spreen, Thomas H., 2006. "Price Endogenous Mathematical Programming Models and Trade Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(02), August.
    2. Lambert, D.K. & McCarl, B.A. & He, Q. & Kaylen, M.S. & Rosenthal, W. & Chang, C.C. & Nayda, W.I., 1995. "Uncertain Yields in Sectoral Welfare Analysis: An Application to Global Warming," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(02), pages 423-436, December.
    3. James W. Mjelde & Harvey S.J. Hill & John F. Griffiths, 1998. "A Review of Current Evidence on Climate Forecasts and Their Economic Effects in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1089-1095.
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    1. repec:spr:ssefpa:v:9:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s12571-017-0702-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Heng-Chi Lee & Bruce McCarl & Uwe Schneider & Chi-Chung Chen, 2007. "Leakage and Comparative Advantage Implications of Agricultural Participation in Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 471-494, May.
    3. Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2006. "Animal Disease Pre-Event Preparedness versus Post-Event Response: When is it Economic to Protect?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(02), August.
    4. Huang, Pei & McCarl, Bruce A., 2014. "Estimating Decadal Climate Variability Effects on Crop Yields: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169828, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Elizabeth Kopits & Alex L. Marten & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Moving Forward with Incorporating "Catastrophic" Climate Change into Policy Analysis," NCEE Working Paper Series 201301, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jan 2013.
    6. Chi-Chung Chen & Bruce McCarl & Ching-Cheng Chang, 2012. "Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 543-560, February.
    7. Mario Andres Fernandez & Pei Huang & Bruce McCarl & Vikram Mehta, 2016. "Value of decadal climate variability information for agriculture in the Missouri River basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 517-533, December.
    8. Schneider, Uwe A. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2005. "Implications of a Carbon-Based Energy Tax for U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 34(2), October.
    9. Lan-Fen Chu & Michael McAleer & Chi-Chung Chen, 2012. "How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 1, pages 1-12.
    10. Peri, Massimo, 2015. "Cliamte Variability and Agricultural Price volatility: the case of corn and soybeans," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212623, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Uwe A. Schneider & Bruce A. McCarl, 2006. "Appraising agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation potentials: effects of alternative assumptions," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(3), pages 277-287, November.
    12. Ubilava, David & Orlowski, Jan, 2016. "The Predictive Content of Climate Anomalies for Agricultural Production: Does ENSO Really Matter?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 236281, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Hill, Harvey S.J. & Mjelde, James W., 2002. "Challenges And Opportunities Provided By Seasonal Climate Forecasts: A Literature Review," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(03), December.
    14. Rubas, Debra J. & Mjelde, James W. & Love, H. Alan, 2003. "Wheat Trade And The Adoption Of Enso-Based Forecasts: Different Scenarios," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22160, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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