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Appraising agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation potentials: effects of alternative assumptions

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  • Uwe A. Schneider
  • Bruce A. McCarl

Abstract

There is interest in society in general and in the agricultural and forestry sectors concerning a land‐based role in greenhouse gas mitigation reduction. Numerous studies have estimated the potential supply schedules at which agriculture and forestry could produce greenhouse gas offsets. However, such studies vary widely in critical assumptions regarding economic market adjustments, allowed scope of mitigation alternatives, and region of focus. Here, we examine the effects of using different assumptions on the total emission mitigation supply curve from agriculture and forestry in the United States. To do this we employ the U.S.‐based Agricultural Sector and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Model and find that variations in such factors can have profound effects on the results. Differences between commonly employed methods shift economic mitigation potentials from –55 to + 85%. The bias is stronger at higher carbon prices due to afforestation and energy crop plantations that reduce supply of traditional commodities. Lower carbon prices promote management changes with smaller impacts on commodity supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Uwe A. Schneider & Bruce A. McCarl, 2006. "Appraising agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation potentials: effects of alternative assumptions," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(3), pages 277-287, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:35:y:2006:i:3:p:277-287
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2006.00162.x
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    1. Stéphane Cara & Martin Houzé & Pierre-Alain Jayet, 2005. "Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agriculture in the EU: A Spatial Assessment of Sources and Abatement Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(4), pages 551-583, December.
    2. Chen, Chi-Chung & McCarl, Bruce A., 2000. "The Value Of Enso Information To Agriculture: Consideration Of Event Strength And Trade," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Alig, Ralph J. & Adams, Darius M. & McCarl, Bruce A., 1998. "Impacts of Incorporating Land Exchanges Between Forestry and Agriculture in Sector Models," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 389-401, December.
    4. Heng-Chi Lee & Bruce McCarl & Uwe Schneider & Chi-Chung Chen, 2007. "Leakage and Comparative Advantage Implications of Agricultural Participation in Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 471-494, May.
    5. Newell, Richard G. & Stavins, Robert N., 2000. "Climate Change and Forest Sinks: Factors Affecting the Costs of Carbon Sequestration," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 211-235, November.
    6. Bruce A. McCarl & Uwe A. Schneider, 2000. "U.S. Agriculture's Role in a Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation World: An Economic Perspective," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 22(1), pages 134-159.
    7. Ching-Cheng Chang & Bruce A. McCarl & James W. Mjelde & James W. Richardson, 1992. "Sectoral Implications of Farm Program Modifications," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(1), pages 38-49.
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    1. Uwe A. Schneider & Michael Obersteiner & Erwin Schmid & Bruce A. McCarl, 2007. "Agricultural adaptation to climate policies under technical change," Working Papers FNU-133, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2008.
    2. Quiggin, John, 2005. "Counting the cost of climate change at an agricultural level," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 152085, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    3. Mykola Gusti & Nicklas Forsell & Petr Havlik & Nikolay Khabarov & Florian Kraxner & Michael Obersteiner, 2019. "The sensitivity of the costs of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) to future socioeconomic drivers and its implications for mitigation policy design," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 1123-1141, August.
    4. Edwin Van Der Werf & Sonja Peterson, 2009. "Modeling linkages between climate policy and land use: an overview," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(5), pages 507-517, September.
    5. Laure Bamière & Pierre‐Alain Jayet & Salomé Kahindo & Elsa Martin, 2021. "Carbon sequestration in French agricultural soils: A spatial economic evaluation," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(2), pages 301-316, March.
    6. De Cara, Stéphane & Jayet, Pierre-Alain, 2011. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions from European agriculture, cost effectiveness, and the EU non-ETS burden sharing agreement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(9), pages 1680-1690, July.
    7. Vassilis Lychnaras & Uwe A. Schneider, 2007. "Dynamic Economic Analysis of Perennial Energy Crops - EffectS of The CAP Reform on Biomass Supply in Greece," Working Papers FNU-132, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2007.
    8. Lungarska, Anna & Chakir, Raja, 2018. "Climate-induced Land Use Change in France: Impacts of Agricultural Adaptation and Climate Change Mitigation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 134-154.
    9. Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso & Swinton, Scott M. & Izaurralde, R. César & Manowitz, David H. & Zhang, Xuesong, 2013. "Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 518-531.
    10. Benjamin Dequiedt & Dominic Moran, 2014. "The cost of emissions mitigation by legume crops in French agriculture," Working Papers 1410, Chaire Economie du climat.
    11. Herath, N. & Tyner, W.E., 2019. "Intended and unintended consequences of US renewable energy policies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. Jing Hou & Bo Hou, 2019. "Farmers’ Adoption of Low-Carbon Agriculture in China: An Extended Theory of the Planned Behavior Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Quiggin, John C., 2009. "Agriculture and global climate stabilization," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 53204, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Uwe A. Schneider & Pete Smith, 2008. "Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation and Emission Intensities in Agriculture," Working Papers FNU-164, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2008.
    15. Peter A. Erickson & Michael Lazarus & Alexia Kelly, 2011. "Importance of programme design for potential US domestic GHG offset supply and quality," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 1315-1336, November.
    16. Pena-Levano, L. & Taheripour, F. & Tyner, W., 2018. "Cost comparison of climate change mitigation options," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277417, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Adams, Thomas & Turner, James A., 2012. "An investigation into the effects of an emissions trading scheme on forest management and land use in New Zealand," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 78-90.
    18. Lengers, Bernd & Britz, Wolfgang & Holm-Müller, Karin, 2013. "Trade-off of feasibility against accuracy and cost efficiency in choosing indicators for the abatement of GHG-emissions in dairy farming," Discussion Papers 162877, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    19. Vermont, Bruno & De Cara, Stéphane, 2010. "How costly is mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture?: A meta-analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1373-1386, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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