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Climate-induced Land Use Change in France: Impacts of Agricultural Adaptation and Climate Change Mitigation

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  • Lungarska, Anna
  • Chakir, Raja

Abstract

Interaction between mitigation and adaptation is a key question for the design of climate policies. In this paper, we study how land use adaptation to climate change impacts land use competition in the agriculture, forest and other land use (AFOLU) sector and how a mitigation policy in agriculture might affect this competition. We use for this purpose two sector-specific bio-economic models of agriculture and forest combined with an econometric land use shares model to simulate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (A2 and B1, 2100 horizon), and a greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture policy consisting of a tax of between 0 and 200€/tCO2 equivalent. Our results show that both climate change scenarios lead to an increase in the area devoted to agriculture at the expense of forest which could have a negative impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change. The mitigation policy would curtail agricultural expansion, and thus could counteract the effects of land use adaptation to climate change. In other words, accounting for land use competition results in a reduction of the abatement costs of the mitigation policy in the agricultural sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Lungarska, Anna & Chakir, Raja, 2018. "Climate-induced Land Use Change in France: Impacts of Agricultural Adaptation and Climate Change Mitigation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 134-154.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:147:y:2018:i:c:p:134-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.12.030
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mohammed Gedefaw & Yan Denghua & Wang Hao & Basaznew Alemu & Mersha Chanie & Genanew Agitew & Mohammed Gedefaw, 2018. "Determinant Factors Affecting Crop Production and Adoption of Soil and Water Conservation Practices In Semein Mountain National Park, Ethiopia," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 13(2), pages 42-46, July.
    3. Thomas-Agnan, Christine & Laurent, Thibault & Ruiz-Gazen, Anne & Nguyen, T.H.A & Chakir, Raja & Lungarska, Anna, 2020. "Spatial simultaneous autoregressive models for compositional data: Application to land use," TSE Working Papers 20-1098, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Joe F. Bozeman & Rayne Bozeman & Thomas L. Theis, 2020. "Overcoming climate change adaptation barriers: A study on food–energy–water impacts of the average American diet by demographic group," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(2), pages 383-399, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spatial land use share model; Greenhouse gas tax; Climate change; Mitigation; Adaptation; Land rent; Agriculture;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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