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The effects of scale, space and time on the predictive accuracy of land use models

Author

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  • Jean-Sauveur Ay
  • Raja Chakir
  • Julie Le Gallo

Abstract

The econometric literature about modeling land use choices is highly heterogeneous with respect to the scale of the data, and to the structure of the models in terms of the effects of space and time. This paper proposes a joint evaluation of each of these three elements by estimating a broad spectrum of individual and aggregate, spatial and aspatial, short and long run econometric models on the same detailed French dataset. Considering four land use classes (arable crops, pasture, forest, and urban), all the models are compared in terms of both in- and out-of-sample predictive accuracy. We argue that the aggregate scale allows to model more effectively the effect of space by using spatial econometric models. We show that modeling spatial autocorrelation allow to have very accurate predictions which can even outperform individual models when the appropriate predictors are used. We also found some strong interactions between the effects of scale, space and time which can be of major interest for applied researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Sauveur Ay & Raja Chakir & Julie Le Gallo, 2014. "The effects of scale, space and time on the predictive accuracy of land use models," Working Papers 2014/02, INRA, Economie Publique.
  • Handle: RePEc:apu:wpaper:2014/02
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    1. Chakir, Raja & Lungarska, Anna, 2015. "Agricultural land rents in land use models: a spatial econometric analysis," 150th Seminar, October 22-23, 2015, Edinburgh, Scotland 212641, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land use models; spatial econometrics; predictive accuracy; aggregate and individual data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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