IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Estimating and Forecasting with a Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Model

  • Badi H. Baltagi
  • Bernard Fingleton
  • Alain Pirotte

This paper focuses on the estimation and predictive performance of several estimators for the dynamic and autoregressive spatial lag panel data model with spatially correlated disturbances. In the spirit of Arellano and Bond (1991) and Mutl (2006), a dynamic spatial GMM estimator is proposed based on Kapoor, Kelejian and Prucha (2007) for the Spatial AutoRegressive (SAR) error model. The main idea is to mix non-spatial and spatial instruments to obtain consistent estimates of the parameters. Then, a linear predictor of this spatial dynamic model is derived. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compare the performance of the GMM spatial estimator to that of spatial and non-spatial estimators and illustrate our approach with an application to new economic geography.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publications/download/sercdp0095.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE in its series SERC Discussion Papers with number 0095.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0095
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/SERC/publications/default.asp

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. repec:pra:mprapa:13404 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Sevestre, P. & Trognon, A., 1985. "A note on autoregressive error components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 231-245, May.
  3. Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "Prediction using panel data regression with spatial random effects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33150, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Bernard Fingleton, 2010. "Predicting the Geography of House Prices," SERC Discussion Papers 0045, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  5. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2007. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 664, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jenny E. Ligthart & Hendrik Vrijburg, 2009. "Dynamic Panel Data Models Featuring Endogenous Interaction and Spatially Correlated Errors," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0915, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  7. Göran Therborn & K.C. Ho, 2009. "Introduction," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 53-62, March.
  8. Arellano, M. & Honore, B., 2000. "Panel Data Models: Some Recent Developments," Papers 0016, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  9. Baltagi B-H. & Pirotte A., 2009. "Panel Data Inference Under Spatial Dependence," Working Papers ERMES 0907, ERMES, University Paris 2.
  10. J. Barkley Rosser, 2009. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  11. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  12. Trapani, Lorenzo & Urga, Giovanni, 2009. "Optimal forecasting with heterogeneous panels: A Monte Carlo study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 567-586, July.
  13. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  14. Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: The Case of Liquor," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 84, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  15. José-Antonio Monteiro & Madina Kukenova, 2009. "Spatial Dynamic Panel Model and System GMM: A Monte Carlo Investigation," IRENE Working Papers 09-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
  16. Taub, Allan J., 1979. "Prediction in the context of the variance-components model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 103-107, April.
  17. Salima Bouayad-Agha & Lionel Védrine, 2010. "Estimation Strategies for a Spatial Dynamic Panel using GMM. A New Approach to the Convergence Issue of European Regions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 205-227.
  18. Lee, Lung-fei & Yu, Jihai, 2010. "Some recent developments in spatial panel data models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 255-271, September.
  19. Harry H. Kelejian & Ingmar R. Prucha, 1995. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," Electronic Working Papers 95-001, University of Maryland, Department of Economics, revised Mar 1997.
  20. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  21. Baltagi B-H & Bresson G. & Pirotte A., 2007. "Forecasting with Spatial Panel Data," Working Papers ERMES 0710, ERMES, University Paris 2.
  22. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  23. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  24. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp, 2007. "Forecasting Regional Labor Market Developments under Spatial Autocorrelation," International Regional Science Review, SAGE Publishing, vol. 30(2), pages 100-119, April.
  25. Bernard Fingleton & Manfred Fischer, 2010. "Neoclassical theory versus new economic geography: competing explanations of cross-regional variation in economic development," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(3), pages 467-491, June.
  26. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond & Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "Estimation in dynamic panel data models: improving on the performance of the standard GMM estimator," IFS Working Papers W00/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  27. Yu, Jihai & Lee, Lung-fei, 2010. "Estimation Of Unit Root Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(05), pages 1332-1362, October.
  28. Lee, Lung-fei & Yu, Jihai, 2010. "Estimation of spatial autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 165-185, February.
  29. Elhorst, J. Paul, 2010. "Dynamic panels with endogenous interaction effects when T is small," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 272-282, September.
  30. Yu, Jihai & de Jong, Robert & Lee, Lung-fei, 2008. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for spatial dynamic panel data with fixed effects when both n and T are large," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 118-134, September.
  31. Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September.
  32. Wilfried Koch, 2008. "Development Accounting with Spatial Effects," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 321-342.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0095. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.