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Predicting the Geography of House Prices

  • Bernard Fingleton

Prediction is difficult. In this paper we use panel data methods to make reasonably accurate shortterm ex-post predictions of house prices across 353 local authority areas in England. The issue of prediction over the longer term is also addressed, and a simple method that makes use of the dynamics embodied in New Economic geography theory is suggested as a possible way to approach the problem.

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File URL: http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publications/download/sercdp0045.pdf
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Paper provided by Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE in its series SERC Discussion Papers with number 0045.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0045
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/SERC/publications/default.asp

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  1. Kristian Behrens & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2009. "Krugman's "Papers in Regional Science": The 100 dollar bill on the sidewalk is gone and the 2008 Nobel Prize well-deserved," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 467-489, 06.
  2. S. Brakman & H Garretsen & M. Schramm, 2003. "The Strategic Bombing of German Cities during World War II and its Impact for Germany," Working Papers 03-08, Utrecht School of Economics.
  3. Mario Larch & Janette Walde, 2009. "Finite sample properties of alternative GMM estimators for random effects models with spatially correlated errors," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 43(2), pages 473-490, June.
  4. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2007. "A Monte Carlo Study for Pure and Pretest Estimators of a Panel Data Model with Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbances," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 87-88, pages 11-38.
  5. Badi H. Baltagi & Seuck Heun Song & Won Koh, 2002. "Testing Panel Data Regression Models with Spatial Error Correlation," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B6-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  6. Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September.
  7. Badi Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: the Case of Liquor," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 175-185.
  8. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2004. "The Spatial Distribution of Wages: Estimating the Helpman-Hanson Model for Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 437-466.
  9. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
  10. Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "Prediction using panel data regression with spatial random effects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33150, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. J. Barkley Rosser, 2009. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  12. Göran Therborn & K.C. Ho, 2009. "Introduction," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 53-62, March.
  13. Bernard Fingleton, 2005. "Towards applied geographical economics: modelling relative wage rates, incomes and prices for the regions of Great Britain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2417-2428.
  14. Mark D. Partridge, 2005. "Does Income Distribution Affect U.S. State Economic Growth?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 363-394.
  15. Gordon H. Hanson, 1998. "Market Potential, Increasing Returns, and Geographic Concentration," NBER Working Papers 6429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "A Generalized Method of Moments Estimator for a Spatial Panel Model with an Endogenous Spatial Lag and Spatial Moving Average Errors," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 27-44.
  17. Mutl, Jan & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2008. "The Spatial Random Effects and the Spatial Fixed Effects Model. The Hausman Test in a Cliff and Ord Panel Model," Economics Series 229, Institute for Advanced Studies.
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