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Predicting the Geography of House Prices

  • Fingleton, Bernard

Prediction is difficult. In this paper we use panel data methods to make reasonably accurate short term ex-post predictions of house prices across 353 local authority areas in England. The issue of prediction over the longer term is also addressed, and a simple method that makes use of the dynamics embodied in New Economic geography theory is suggested as a possible way to approach the problem.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21113/1/MPRA_paper_21113.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21113.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21113
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  1. Mark D. Partridge, 2005. "Does Income Distribution Affect U.S. State Economic Growth?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 363-394.
  2. J. Barkley Rosser, 2009. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  3. Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "Prediction using panel data regression with spatial random effects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33150, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2007. "A Monte Carlo Study for Pure and Pretest Estimators of a Panel Data Model with Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbances," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 98, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  5. Hanson, G.H., 1999. "`Market Potential, Increasing Returns, and Geographic Concentration," Working Papers 439, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  6. Badi H. Baltagi & Seuck Heun Song & Won Koh, 2002. "Testing Panel Data Regression Models with Spatial Error Correlation," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B6-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  7. S. Brakman & H Garretsen & M. Schramm, 2003. "The Strategic Bombing of German Cities during World War II and its Impact for Germany," Working Papers 03-08, Utrecht School of Economics.
  8. Mario Larch & Janette Walde, 2009. "Finite sample properties of alternative GMM estimators for random effects models with spatially correlated errors," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 473-490, June.
  9. Kristian Behrens & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2009. "Krugman's "Papers in Regional Science": The 100 dollar bill on the sidewalk is gone and the 2008 Nobel Prize well-deserved," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 467-489, 06.
  10. Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "A Generalized Method of Moments Estimator for a Spatial Panel Model with an Endogenous Spatial Lag and Spatial Moving Average Errors," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 27-44.
  11. Mutl, Jan & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2008. "The Spatial Random Effects and the Spatial Fixed Effects Model. The Hausman Test in a Cliff and Ord Panel Model," Economics Series 229, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  12. Bernard Fingleton, 2005. "Towards applied geographical economics: modelling relative wage rates, incomes and prices for the regions of Great Britain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2417-2428.
  13. Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: The Case of Liquor," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 84, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  14. S. Brakman & H Garretsen & M. Schramm, 2004. "The Spatial Distribution of Wages:Estimating the Helpman-Hanson model for Germany," Working Papers 03-09, Utrecht School of Economics.
  15. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
  16. G�ran Therborn & K.C. Ho, 2009. "Introduction," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 53-62, March.
  17. Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September.
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