Prediction Using Panel Data Regression with Spatial Random Effects
This article considers some of the issues and difficulties relating to the use of spatial panel data regression in prediction, illustrated by the effects of mass immigration on wages and income levels in local authority areas of Great Britain. Motivated by contemporary urban economics theory, and using recent advances in spatial econometrics, the panel regression has wages dependent on employment density and the efficiency of the labor force. There are two types of spatial interaction, a spatial lag of wages and an autoregressive process for error components. The estimates suggest that increased employment densities will increase wage levels, but wages may fall if migrants are underqualified. This uncertainty highlights the fact that ex ante forecasting should be used with great caution as a basis for policy decisions.
Volume (Year): 32 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2004. "Models for Spatially Dependent Missing Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 233-254, September.
- Ciccone, Antonio & Hall, Robert E, 1996.
"Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 54-70, March.
- Antonio Ciccone & Robert E. Hall, 1993. "Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 4313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonio Ciccone & Robert E. Hall, 1995. "Productivity and the density of economic activity," Economics Working Papers 120, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- John M. Quigley, 1998. "Urban Diversity and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 127-138, Spring.
- Badi Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: the Case of Liquor," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 175-185.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: The Case of Liquor," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 84, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2005. "Testing for PPP: Should we use panel methods?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 77-91, January.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, "undated". "Testing for PPP: Should We Use Panel Methods?," Working Papers 186, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2002. "Testing for PPP: Should We Use Panel Methods?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 13, Royal Economic Society.
- Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "The relative efficiencies of various predictors in spatial econometric models containing spatial lags," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 363-374, May.
- Rivera-Batiz, Francisco L., 1988. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and agglomeration economies in consumption and production," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 125-153, February.
- Luciano Gutierrez, 2006. "Panel Unit-root Tests for Cross-sectionally Correlated Panels: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 519-540, August.
- Luciano Gutierrez, 2003. "Panel Unit Roots Tests for Cross-Sectionally Correlated Panels: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Econometrics 0310004, EconWPA.
- Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September.
- Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-629, Special I. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)