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Competing models of global dynamics: Evidence from panel models with spatially correlated error components

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  • Fingleton, Bernard

Abstract

This paper considers two competing theories with differing implications for the long run dynamics of the global economy, neoclassical theory, implying conditional convergence, and New Economic Geography, implying multiple equilibria. These rival non-nested hypotheses are combined within an artificial nesting, panel data, model, embodying a spatial autoregressive error process allowing for unmodelled inter-country heterogeneity and spatially dependent errors, and tested using a panel of 77 countries over the years 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000. The New Economic Geography theory is shown to have superior explanatory power, but it also introduces some significant problems of estimation and measurement.

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  • Fingleton, Bernard, 2008. "Competing models of global dynamics: Evidence from panel models with spatially correlated error components," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 542-558, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:25:y:2008:i:3:p:542-558
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    Cited by:

    1. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2011. "Gravity, market potential and development," Post-Print hal-01024209, HAL.
    2. repec:spr:anresc:v:58:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s00168-016-0804-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Arbia, Giuseppe & Battisti, Michele & Di Vaio, Gianfranco, 2010. "Institutions and geography: Empirical test of spatial growth models for European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 12-21, January.
    4. Marco Crocco & Fabiana Santos & Pedro Amaral, 2009. "The spatial structure of the financial development in Brazil," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td361, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    5. Pedro Amaral & Mauro Lemos & Rodrigo Simões & Flávia Chein, 2010. "Regional Imbalances and Market Potential in Brazil," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 463-482.
    6. Kristian Behrens & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2009. "Krugman's "Papers in Regional Science": The 100 dollar bill on the sidewalk is gone and the 2008 Nobel Prize well-deserved," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 467-489, June.
    7. Burhan Can Karahasan, 2014. "The Spatial Distribution Of New Firms:Can Peripheral Areas Escape From The Curse Of Remoteness?," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-28, DECEMBER.
    8. Roberts, Mark & Deichmann, Uwe & Fingleton, Bernard & Shi, Tuo, 2010. "On the road to prosperity ? The economic geography of China's national expressway network," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5479, The World Bank.
    9. Maza, Adolfo & Hierro, María & Villaverde, José, 2012. "Income distribution dynamics across European regions: Re-examining the role of space," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2632-2640.
    10. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2011. "Gravity, market potential and economic development," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, pages 281-294.
    11. Dusan Paredes, 2012. "Alternative theories for explaining the spatial wage inequality: a multilevel competition among human capital, NEG and amenities," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 20, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2012.
    12. Dusan Paredes, 2010. "The Role of Regional Price Index in New Economic Geography Models," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 07, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    13. Bernard FINGLETON & Silvia PALOMBI, 2013. "The Wage Curve Reconsidered: Is It Truly An 'Empirical Law Of Economics'?," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 38, pages 49-92.
    14. Fernando Bruna, 2015. "Why do empirical tests tend to accept the NEG? An alternative approach to the 'wage equation' in European regions," Working Papers 15-11, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8mb6c01j is not listed on IDEAS

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