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An Economic Framework for Forecasting Land-Use and Ecosystem Change

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  • Lewis, David J.

    (University of Wisconsin)

Abstract

This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, David J., 2008. "An Economic Framework for Forecasting Land-Use and Ecosystem Change," Staff Paper Series 532, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:wisagr:532
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    File URL: http://www.aae.wisc.edu/pubs/sps/pdf/stpap532.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Sauveur Ay & Raja Chakir & Julie Le Gallo, 2014. "The effects of scale, space and time on the predictive accuracy of land use models," Working Papers 2014/02, INRA, Economie Publique.
    2. Newburn, David & Ferris, Jeffrey, "undated". "The Effect of Downzoning on Spatial Development Patterns," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170446, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Katharine Sims, 2014. "Do Protected Areas Reduce Forest Fragmentation? A Microlandscapes Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(2), pages 303-333, June.
    4. Elena G. Irwin, 2010. "New Directions For Urban Economic Models Of Land Use Change: Incorporating Spatial Dynamics And Heterogeneity," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 65-91.

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