An Economic Framework for Forecasting Land-Use and Ecosystem Change
This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 427 Lorch Street, Madison, WI 53706-1503|
Web page: http://www.aae.wisc.edu/pubs/sps/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stavins, Robert N & Jaffe, Adam B, 1990. "Unintended Impacts of Public Investments on Private Decisions: The Depletion of Forested Wetlands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 337-52, June.
- Newburn, David A. & Berck, Peter & Merenlender, Adina, 2004. "Spatial Targeting Strategies For Land Conservation," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20206, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Andrew J. Plantinga, 1996. "The Effect of Agricultural Policies on Land Use and Environmental Quality," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 1082-1091.
- Armsworth, Paul R. & Kendall, Bruce E. & Davis, Frank W., 2004. "An introduction to biodiversity concepts for environmental economists," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 115-136, June.
- Train,Kenneth E., 2009.
"Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, 1.
- Costello, Christopher & Polasky, Stephen, 2004. "Dynamic reserve site selection," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 157-174, June.
- David J. Lewis & Andrew J. Plantinga, 2007. "Policies for Habitat Fragmentation: Combining Econometrics with GIS-Based Landscape Simulations," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(2), pages 109-127.
- Elena G. Irwin, 2002. "Interacting agents, spatial externalities and the evolution of residential land use patterns," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 31-54, January.
- Anselin, Luc, 2002. "Under the hood : Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 247-267, November.
- Gerald C. Nelson & GVirginia Harris & Steven W. Stone, 2001. "Deforestation, Land Use, and Property Rights: Empirical Evidence from Darién, Panama," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(2), pages 187-205.
- Walls, Margaret & McConnell, Virginia & Kopits, Elizabeth, 2005.
"Zoning, TDRs, and the Density of Development,"
dp-05-32, Resources For the Future.
- Lubowski, Ruben N. & Plantinga, Andrew J. & Stavins, Robert N., 2006.
"Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 135-152, March.
- Lubowski, Ruben & Plantinga, Andrew & Stavins, Robert, 2005. "Land-Use Change and Carbon Sinks: Econometric Estimation of the Carbon Sequestration Supply Function," Working Paper Series rwp05-001, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Carmen Carri�n-Flores & Elena G. Irwin, 2004. "Determinants of Residential Land-Use Conversion and Sprawl at the Rural-Urban Fringe," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 889-904.
- Fiorenza Spalatro & Bill Provencher, 2001. "An Analysis of Minimum Frontage Zoning to Preserve Lakefront Amenities," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(4), pages 469-481.
- Zabel, Jeffrey E., 1992. "Estimating fixed and random effects models with selectivity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 269-272, November.
- Nelson, Gerald & Hellerstein, Daniel, 1997.
"Do roads cause deforestation? Using satellite images in econometric analysis of land use,"
25261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gerald C. Nelson & Daniel Hellerstein, 1997. "Do Roads Cause Deforestation? Using Satellite Images in Econometric Analysis of Land Use," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 80-88.
- Provencher, Bill & Bishop, R.C.Richard C., 2004. "Does accounting for preference heterogeneity improve the forecasting of a random utility model? A case study," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 793-810, July.
- Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, 1.
- Nancy E. Bockstael, 1996. "Modeling Economics and Ecology: The Importance of a Spatial Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1168-1180.
- Adina M. Merenlender, 2006. "Habitat and Open Space at Risk of Land-Use Conversion: Targeting Strategies for Land Conservation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 28-42.
- Chomitz, Kenneth M & Gray, David A, 1996. "Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 487-512, September.
- Lewis, David J. & Provencher, Bill & Butsic, Van, 2009.
"The dynamic effects of open-space conservation policies on residential development density,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 239-252, May.
- Lewis, David J. & Provencher, Bill & Butsic, Van, 2008. "The Dynamic Effects of Open-Space Conservation Policies on Residential Development Density," Staff Paper Series 522, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
- Anselin, Luc, 2002. "Under the hood Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 27(3), November.
- Irwin, Elena G. & Bockstael, Nancy E., 2004. "Land use externalities, open space preservation, and urban sprawl," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 705-725, November.
- Krinsky, Itzhak & Robb, A Leslie, 1986. "On Approximating the Statistical Properties of Elasticities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 715-19, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecl:wisagr:532. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.