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How Volatile is ENSO?

  • LanFen Chu

    (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

  • Chi-Chung Chen

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

The El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO) is a periodical phenomenon of climatic interannual variability, which could be measured through either the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Index. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze these two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in ENSO. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately. The empirical results show that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The ENSO strengths for SST are predicted for the year 2030 to increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This indicates that we will be faced with an even stronger El Nino or La Nina in the future if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated.

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File URL: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP729.pdf
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Paper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 729.

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Length: 32pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:729
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