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How Volatile is ENSO?

  • LanFen Chu

    (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Chi-Chung Chen

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

The El Ninos Southern Oscillations (ENSO) is a periodical phenomenon of climatic interannual variability which could be measured through either the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Index. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze these two indexes in order to capture ENSO volatility. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility. Moreover, 1998 is a turning point for the volatility of SOI, and the ENSO volatility has became stronger since 1998 which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased.

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File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf635.pdf
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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-635.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf635
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