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Modeling the Effects of Oil Prices on Global Fertilizer Prices and Volatility

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The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models, including GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR models, are used to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. The empirical results from ARDL show that most fertilizer prices are significantly affected by the crude oil price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods.

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  • Ping-Yu Chen & Chia-Lin Chang & Chi-Chung Chen & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Modeling the Effects of Oil Prices on Global Fertilizer Prices and Volatility," Working Papers in Economics 13/07, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:13/07
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    File URL: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/RePEc/cbt/econwp/1307.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. David E. Allen & Chialin Chang & Michael McAleer & Abhay K Singh, 2018. "A cointegration analysis of agricultural, energy and bio-fuel spot, and futures prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 804-823, February.
    2. repec:eco:journ1:2017-02-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chia-Lin Chang & Yiying Li & Michael McAleer, 2015. "Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-077/III, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertilizer Price; Oil Price; Volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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