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Underlying Trends and Seasonality in UK Energy Demands: A Sectorial Analysis

  • Hunt, L.C.
  • Judge, G.
  • Ninomiya, Y.

This paper demonstrates the importance for energy demand modelling of allowing for trends and seasonal effects that are stochastic in form. Inherent underlying trends may be non-linear and reflect not only technical progress, which usually produces greater energy efficiency, but also other factors such as changes in consumer tastes and the economic structure that may be working in the opposite direction.

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Paper provided by Portsmouth University - Department of Economics in its series Papers with number 134.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:portec:134
Contact details of provider: Postal: U.K.; University of Portsmouth; Department of Economics, Locksway Road, Milton, Southsea Hants PO4 8JF, UK
Phone: 44 (0)1705 844082
Fax: +44 (0)1705 844037
Web page: http://www.pbs.port.ac.uk/econ/index.html

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  1. Beenstock, M. & Willcocks, P., 1981. "Energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized countries : The dynamic aggregate time series relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 225-232, October.
  2. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-89, October.
  3. Jones, Clifton T, 1994. "Accounting for technical progress in aggregate energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 245-252, October.
  4. Lynk, Edward L, 1989. "The Demand for Energy by U.K. Manufacturing Industry," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(1), pages 1-16, March.
  5. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-42.
  6. Smith, Clare & Hall, Stephen & Mabey, Nick, 1995. "Econometric modelling of international carbon tax regimes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 133-146, April.
  7. Andrew C Harvey & Andrew Scott, 1994. "Seasonality in Dynamic Regression Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0184, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  8. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
  9. Haas, Reinhard & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 421-442, September.
  10. Unander, Fridtjof & Karbuz, Sohbet & Schipper, Lee & Khrushch, Marta & Ting, Michael, 1999. "Manufacturing energy use in OECD countries: decomposition of long-term trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(13), pages 769-778, November.
  11. Kouris, George, 1983. "Energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized economies--a note," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 207-212, July.
  12. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
  13. Welsch, Heinz, 1989. "The reliability of aggregate energy demand functions : An application of statistical specification error tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 285-292, October.
  14. Beenstock, Michael & Wilcocks, Patrick, 1983. "Energy and economic activity: a reply to Kouris," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 212-212, July.
  15. Kouris, George, 1983. "Fuel consumption for road transport in the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 89-99, April.
  16. Clements, Michael P & Madlener, Reinhard, 1999. "Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 185-206, May.
  17. Fouquet, Roger & Pearson, Peter & Hawdon, David & Robinson, Colin & Stevens, Paul, 1997. "The future of UK final user energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 231-240, February.
  18. Morana, Claudio, 2000. "Modelling Evolving Long-Run Relationships: An Application to the Italian Energy Market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 72-93, February.
  19. Harvey, A C, et al, 1986. "Stochastic Trends in Dynamic Regression Models: An Application to the Employment-Output Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 975-85, December.
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