IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fth/portec/134.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Underlying Trends and Seasonality in UK Energy Demands: A Sectorial Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hunt, L.C.
  • Judge, G.
  • Ninomiya, Y.

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the importance for energy demand modelling of allowing for trends and seasonal effects that are stochastic in form. Inherent underlying trends may be non-linear and reflect not only technical progress, which usually produces greater energy efficiency, but also other factors such as changes in consumer tastes and the economic structure that may be working in the opposite direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Hunt, L.C. & Judge, G. & Ninomiya, Y., 2000. "Underlying Trends and Seasonality in UK Energy Demands: A Sectorial Analysis," Papers 134, Portsmouth University - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:portec:134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lester C Hunt & Guy Judge, 1996. "Evolving Seasonal Patterns In Uk Energy Series," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: G MacKerron & P Pearson (ed.), The Uk Energy Experience A Model or A Warning?, chapter 19, pages 259-270, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Jones, Clifton T, 1994. "Accounting for technical progress in aggregate energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 245-252, October.
    3. Claudio Morana, 2000. "Modelling Evolving Long‐run Relationships: An Application to the Italian Energy Market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 72-93, February.
    4. Michael P. Clements & Reinhard Madlener, 1999. "Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 185-206, May.
    5. Welsch, Heinz, 1989. "The reliability of aggregate energy demand functions : An application of statistical specification error tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 285-292, October.
    6. Harvey, Andrew & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Seasonality in Dynamic Regression Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1324-1345, November.
    7. Beenstock, Michael & Wilcocks, Patrick, 1983. "Energy and economic activity: a reply to Kouris," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 212-212, July.
    8. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
    9. Beenstock, M. & Willcocks, P., 1981. "Energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized countries : The dynamic aggregate time series relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 225-232, October.
    10. Smith, Clare & Hall, Stephen & Mabey, Nick, 1995. "Econometric modelling of international carbon tax regimes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 133-146, April.
    11. Kouris, George, 1983. "Fuel consumption for road transport in the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 89-99, April.
    12. Harvey, A C, et al, 1986. "Stochastic Trends in Dynamic Regression Models: An Application to the Employment-Output Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 975-985, December.
    13. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-389, October.
    14. Lynk, Edward L, 1989. "The Demand for Energy by U.K. Manufacturing Industry," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(1), pages 1-16, March.
    15. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    16. Haas, Reinhard & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 421-442, September.
    17. Kouris, George, 1983. "Energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized economies--a note," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 207-212, July.
    18. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
    19. Unander, Fridtjof & Karbuz, Sohbet & Schipper, Lee & Khrushch, Marta & Ting, Michael, 1999. "Manufacturing energy use in OECD countries: decomposition of long-term trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(13), pages 769-778, November.
    20. Fouquet, Roger & Pearson, Peter & Hawdon, David & Robinson, Colin & Stevens, Paul, 1997. "The future of UK final user energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 231-240, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Modelling underlying energy demand trends," Chapters, in: Lester C. Hunt (ed.), Energy in a Competitive Market, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yashushi Ninomiya, 2000. "Modelling Technical Progress: An Application of the Stochastic Trend Model to UK Energy Demand," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 99, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    3. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C., 2011. "Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: A structural time series analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 426-436, May.
    4. SHIRANI-FAKHR, Zohreh & KHOSHAKHLAGH, Rahman & SHARIFI, Alimorad, 2015. "Estimating Demand Function For Electricity In Industrial Sector Of Iran Using Structural Time Series Model (Stsm)," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 143-160.
    5. Olaniyan, Monisola J. & Evans, Joanne, 2014. "The importance of engaging residential energy customers' hearts and minds," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 273-284.
    6. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C., 2021. "Modelling U.S. gasoline demand: A structural time series analysis with asymmetric price responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. John Dimitropoulos & Lester Hunt & Guy Judge, 2005. "Estimating underlying energy demand trends using UK annual data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 239-244.
    8. Adeyemi, Olutomi I. & Hunt, Lester C., 2014. "Accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in OECD industrial energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 435-444.
    9. Adeyemi, Olutomi I. & Broadstock, David C. & Chitnis, Mona & Hunt, Lester C. & Judge, Guy, 2010. "Asymmetric price responses and the underlying energy demand trend: Are they substitutes or complements? Evidence from modelling OECD aggregate energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1157-1164, September.
    10. Hunt, Lester C. & Ryan, David L., 2015. "Economic modelling of energy services: Rectifying misspecified energy demand functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 273-285.
    11. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C, 2011. "Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3117-3127, June.
    12. Tehreem Fatima & Enjun Xia & Muhammad Ahad, 2019. "Oil demand forecasting for China: a fresh evidence from structural time series analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 1205-1224, June.
    13. Sa'ad, Suleiman, 2010. "Improved technical efficiency and exogenous factors in transportation demand for energy: An application of structural time series analysis to South Korean data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 2745-2751.
    14. Ackah, Ishmael, 2015. "On the relationship between energy consumption, productivity and economic growth: Evidence from Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa," MPRA Paper 64887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Al-Rabbaie, Arqam & Alwaked, Ahmad & Altarawneh, Yaseen, 2009. "Underlying trends in employment-output equation: the case of Jordan," Perspectives of Innovations, Economics and Business (PIEB), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 3, pages 1-3, December.
    16. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2010. "Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1979-1990, April.
    17. Atalla, Tarek N. & Hunt, Lester C., 2016. "Modelling residential electricity demand in the GCC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 149-158.
    18. Karimu, Amin & Brännlund, Runar, 2013. "Functional form and aggregate energy demand elasticities: A nonparametric panel approach for 17 OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 19-27.
    19. Adofo, Yaw Osei & Evans, Joanne & Hunt, Lester Charles, 2013. "How sensitive to time period sampling is the asymmetric price response specification in energy demand modelling?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 90-109.
    20. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007. "Regulatory reform in Turkish energy industry: An analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 984-993, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ENERGY DEMAND ; EFFICIENCY ; INCOME;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:portec:134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/depbsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.