Underlying trends and seasonality in UK energy demand: a sectoral analysis
This paper demonstrates the importance for energy demand modelling of allowing for trends and seasonal effects that are stochastic in form. Inherent underlying trends may be non-linear and reflect not only technical progress, which usually produces greater energy efficiency, but also other factors such as changes in consumer tastes and the economic structure that may be working in the opposite direction. Using quarterly unadjusted data for various sectors in the UK, it is shown that unless energy demand models are formulated so as to allow for stochastic trends and seasonals, estimates of price and income elasticities could be seriously biased.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clements, Michael P & Madlener, Reinhard, 1999. "Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 185-206, May.
- David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2000.
"Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-42.
- Smith, Clare & Hall, Stephen & Mabey, Nick, 1995. "Econometric modelling of international carbon tax regimes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 133-146, April.
- Welsch, Heinz, 1989. "The reliability of aggregate energy demand functions : An application of statistical specification error tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 285-292, October.
- Jones, Clifton T, 1994. "Accounting for technical progress in aggregate energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 245-252, October.
- Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-89, October.
- Fouquet, Roger & Pearson, Peter & Hawdon, David & Robinson, Colin & Stevens, Paul, 1997. "The future of UK final user energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 231-240, February.
- Harvey, Andrew & Scott, Andrew, 1994.
"Seasonality in Dynamic Regression Models,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1324-45, November.
- Unander, Fridtjof & Karbuz, Sohbet & Schipper, Lee & Khrushch, Marta & Ting, Michael, 1999. "Manufacturing energy use in OECD countries: decomposition of long-term trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(13), pages 769-778, November.
- Haas, Reinhard & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 421-442, September.
- Lynk, Edward L, 1989. "The Demand for Energy by U.K. Manufacturing Industry," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(1), pages 1-16, March.
- Beenstock, Michael & Wilcocks, Patrick, 1983. "Energy and economic activity: a reply to Kouris," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 212-212, July.
- Morana, Claudio, 2000. "Modelling Evolving Long-Run Relationships: An Application to the Italian Energy Market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 72-93, February.
- Harvey, A C, et al, 1986. "Stochastic Trends in Dynamic Regression Models: An Application to the Employment-Output Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 975-85, December.
- Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
- Beenstock, M. & Willcocks, P., 1981. "Energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized countries : The dynamic aggregate time series relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 225-232, October.
- Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
- Hunt,L.C. & Judge,G., 1995. "Evolving Seasonal Patterns in UK Energy Series," Papers 63, Portsmouth University - Department of Economics.
- Kouris, George, 1983. "Energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized economies--a note," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 207-212, July.
- Kouris, George, 1983. "Fuel consumption for road transport in the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 89-99, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:25:y:2003:i:1:p:93-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.