Modelling and Forecasting Turkish Residential Electricity Demand
This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57 respectively and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38 respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of the implementation of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of energy market structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity consumption will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Energy Policy, 39(6), 2011, pp. 3117-3127. (Revised Version)|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Guildford, Surrey GU2 5XH, UK|
Phone: +44(0)1483 686956
Fax: +44(0)1483 689548
Web page: http://www.seec.surrey.ac.uk
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003.
"Modelling underlying energy demand trends,"
in: Energy in a Competitive Market, chapter 9
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Lester C Hunt & Guy Judge & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 105, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Hamzacebi, Coskun, 2007. "Forecasting of Turkey's net electricity energy consumption on sectoral bases," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 2009-2016, March.
- John Dimitropoulos & Lester Hunt & Guy Judge, 2005.
"Estimating underlying energy demand trends using UK annual data,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 239-244.
- John Dimitropoulos & Lester C Hunt & Guy Judge, 2004. "Estimating Underlying Energy Demand Trends using UK Annual Data," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 108, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-89, October.
- Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yashushi Ninomiya, 2000. "Modelling Technical Progress: An Application of the Stochastic Trend Model to UK Energy Demand," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 99, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Lester C. Hunt & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-96.
- Andrew C Harvey & Andrew Scott, 1994.
"Seasonality in Dynamic Regression Models,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0184, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Amarawickrama, Himanshu A. & Hunt, Lester C., 2008.
"Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis,"
Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 724-739.
- Himanshu A. Amarawickrama & Lester C Hunt, 2007. "Electricity Demand for Sri Lanka: A Time Series Analysis," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 118, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Hunt, Lester C. & Judge, Guy & Ninomiya, Yasushi, 2003.
"Underlying trends and seasonality in UK energy demand: a sectoral analysis,"
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-118, January.
- Hunt, L.C. & Judge, G. & Ninomiya, Y., 2000. "Underlying Trends and Seasonality in UK Energy Demands: A Sectorial Analysis," Papers 134, Portsmouth University - Department of Economics.
- Harvey, A C, et al, 1986. "Stochastic Trends in Dynamic Regression Models: An Application to the Employment-Output Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 975-85, December.
- Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2007.
"Deterministic and stochastic trends in the time series models: A guide for the applied economist,"
3580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- B. Bhaskara Rao, 2010. "Deterministic and stochastic trends in the time series models: a guide for the applied economist," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2193-2202.
- Jalles, Joao Tovar, 2009. "Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter: a concise review," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp541, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
- Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sur:seedps:131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lester C Hunt)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.