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Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan

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  • Lester C. Hunt
  • Yasushi Ninomiya

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the importance of adequately modelling the Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) and seasonality when estimating transportation oil demand for the UK and Japan. The structural time series model is therefore employed to allow for a stochastic underlying trend and stochastic seasonals using quarterly data from the early 1970s, for both UK and Japan. It is found that the stochastic seasonals are preferred to the conventional deterministic dummies and, more importantly, the UEDT is found to be highly non-linear for both countries, with periods where it is both upward and downward sloping.

Suggested Citation

  • Lester C. Hunt & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan," The Energy Journal, , vol. 24(3), pages 63-96, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:24:y:2003:i:3:p:63-96
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No3-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transport oil demand; underlying trends; Seasonality; Japan; UK; Structural time-series analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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