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Money - Inflation Nexus in Indonesia: Evidence from a P-Star Analysis

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  • Reza Anglingkusumo

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, and Bank-Indonesia, Jakarta)

Abstract

In this paper the effect of excess narrow money (MI) on C PI intlation in Indonesiabefore, during, and after the Asian crisis is empirically examined. The standard model for themonetary analysis of inflation, i.e. the P-Star model by Hallman-Porter-Small (1991), isapplied and tested empirically using quarterly Indonesian data between 1981 and 2002. Theempirical model is a Markov switching error correction model. The results show that the tworegime P-star model, in terms of excess MI, tracks the long run dynamics of CPI inflation inIndonesia remarkably weIl. Hence, there is an empirical support for the assertion that longrun CPI intlation in Indonesia is a monetary phenomenon. In addition, there is evidence of aco-breaking relationship between excess MI and consumer prices in Indonesia during theAsian crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Reza Anglingkusumo, 2005. "Money - Inflation Nexus in Indonesia: Evidence from a P-Star Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-054/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20050054
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    Cited by:

    1. Yazdan Naghdi & Nasibeh Kakoei, 2011. "Money and Inflation in Iran: Evidence from P* Model," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(5), pages 311-316.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; monetary model; structural break; regime switching error correction model; co-breaking; Asian crisis; Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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