Asymmetry and uncertainty in capital formation: an application to oil investment
Theories of irreversible investment suggest a negative relation between investment and uncertainty, and nonlinear adjustment costs open for asymmetries in the adjustment of fixed capital. We propose an econometric modelling approach to estimate and test the key predictions of modern investment theory, including asymmetric dynamics and various uncertainty indicators. Our application on a data set from the oil industry offers empirical support for both asymmetric dynamics and uncertainty in oil and gas investment.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 43 (2011)
Issue (Month): 28 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995.
"Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
- Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
- Van Reenen, John & Bloom, Nick & Bond, Steve, 2006. "Uncertainty and investment dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2645, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Nick Bloom & John Van Reenen & Stephen Bond, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0739, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Ekern, Steinar, 1988. "An option pricing approach to evaluating petroleum projects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 91-99, April.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2004. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 10807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1994. "Oil investment in the North Sea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 308-329, July.
- Favero, C.A. & Pesaran, M.H., 1992. "Oil Investment in the North Sea," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9204, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
- Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter, 2008. "Exploration economics in a regulated petroleum province: The case of the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-320, March.
- Favero, C.A. & Pesaran, M.H. & Sharma, S., 1992. "Uncertainty and Irreversible Investment: An Empirical Analysis of Development of Oilfields on the UKCS," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9210, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
- Ringlund, Guro Bornes & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Skjerpen, Terje, 2008. "Does oilrig activity react to oil price changes An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 371-396, March.
- Guro Børnes Ringlund & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Terje Skjerpen, 2004. "Does oilrig activity react to oil price changes? An empirical investigation," Discussion Papers 372, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Hurn, A S & Wright, Robert E, 1994. "Geology or Economics? Testing Models of Irreversible Investment Using North Sea Oil Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 363-371, March.
- C. Bram Cadsby & Elizabeth Maynes, 1998. "Laboratory experiments in corporate and investment finance: a survey," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4-5), pages 277-298.
- Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
- Farzin, Y. H., 2001. "The impact of oil price on additions to US proven reserves," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 271-292, July.
- Serven, Luis, 1997. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Private Investment: Analytical Issues and Some Lessons for Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 229-268, Supplemen.
- Osmundsen, Petter & Mohn, Klaus & Misund, Bard & Asche, Frank, 2007. "Is oil supply choked by financial market pressures?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 467-474, January.
- Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
- Grasso, Margherita & Manera, Matteo, 2007. "Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 156-177, January.
- Matteo Manera & Margherita Grasso, 2005. "Asymmetric Error Correction Models for the Oil-Gasoline Price Relationship," Working Papers 2005.75, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. " What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-153, April.
- Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 1998. "What Do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Studies in Economics 9804, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Jochen Meyer & Stephan Cramon-Taubadel, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 581-611.
- Meyer, Jochen & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2002. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24822, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Michael R. Walls & James S. Dyer, 1996. "Risk Propensity and Firm Performance: A Study of the Petroleum Exploration Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(7), pages 1004-1021, July.
- Dahl, Carol & Duggan, Thomas E., 1998. "Survey of price elasticities from economic exploration models of US oil and gas supply," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 129-169.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
- Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-475, June.
- Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-629, Special I.
- Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
- Iledare, Omowumi O. & Pulsipher, Allan G., 1999. "Sources of change in petroleum drilling productivity in onshore Louisiana in the US, 1977-1994," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 261-271, June.
- Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)