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Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand

  • Dilaver, Zafer
  • Hunt, Lester C

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80Â TWh by 2020 compared to 40Â TWh in 2008.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 3117-3127

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:6:p:3117-3127
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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  1. Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yashushi Ninomiya, 2000. "Modelling Technical Progress: An Application of the Stochastic Trend Model to UK Energy Demand," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 99, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  2. B. Bhaskara Rao, 2010. "Deterministic and stochastic trends in the time series models: a guide for the applied economist," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2193-2202.
  3. Hamzacebi, Coskun, 2007. "Forecasting of Turkey's net electricity energy consumption on sectoral bases," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 2009-2016, March.
  4. John Dimitropoulos & Lester C Hunt & Guy Judge, 2004. "Estimating Underlying Energy Demand Trends using UK Annual Data," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 108, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  5. Harvey, Andrew & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Seasonality in Dynamic Regression Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1324-45, November.
  6. Jalles, Joao Tovar, 2009. "Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter: a concise review," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp541, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
  7. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
  8. Himanshu A. Amarawickrama & Lester C Hunt, 2007. "Electricity Demand for Sri Lanka: A Time Series Analysis," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 118, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  9. Hunt, L.C. & Judge, G. & Ninomiya, Y., 2000. "Underlying Trends and Seasonality in UK Energy Demands: A Sectorial Analysis," Papers 134, Portsmouth University - Department of Economics.
  10. Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Modelling underlying energy demand trends," Chapters, in: Energy in a Competitive Market, chapter 9 Edward Elgar.
  11. Lester C. Hunt & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-96.
  12. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-89, October.
  13. Harvey, A C, et al, 1986. "Stochastic Trends in Dynamic Regression Models: An Application to the Employment-Output Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 975-85, December.
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