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Modelling the Effects of Oil Prices on Global Fertilizer Prices and Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Ping-Yu Chen

    (Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan)

  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics Department of Finance National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan)

  • Chi-Chung Chen

    (Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands and Institute of Economic Research Kyoto University, Japan and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models, including GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR models, are used to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. The empirical results from ARDL show that most fertilizer prices are significantly affected by the crude oil price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Ping-Yu Chen & Chia-Lin Chang & Chi-Chung Chen & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Modelling the Effects of Oil Prices on Global Fertilizer Prices and Volatility," KIER Working Papers 844, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:844
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Yiying Li & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Duc Hong Vo & Tan Ngoc Vu & Anh The Vo & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Modeling the Relationship between Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(7), pages 1-41, April.
    3. David E. Allen & Chialin Chang & Michael McAleer & Abhay K Singh, 2018. "A cointegration analysis of agricultural, energy and bio-fuel spot, and futures prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 804-823, February.
    4. Andre Yone Haughton & Emma M. Iglesias, 2017. "Exchange Rate Movements, Stock Prices and Volatility in the Caribbean and Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 437-447.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertilizer Price; Oil Price; Volatility.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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