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Modeling the Volatility in Global Fertilizer Prices

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Listed:
  • Chen, P-Y.
  • Chang, C-L.
  • Chen, C-C.
  • McAleer, M.J.

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the volatility in global fertilizer prices. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, and GJR model are estimated for six global fertilizer prices and the crude oil price. Weekly data for 2003-2008 for the seven price series are analysed. The empirical results suggest that the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods, and that the peak crude oil price caused greater volatility in the crude oil price and global fertilizer prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, P-Y. & Chang, C-L. & Chen, C-C. & McAleer, M.J., 2010. "Modeling the Volatility in Global Fertilizer Prices," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-42, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:20377
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    Keywords

    crude oil price; global fertilizer price; non-renewable fertilizers; structural breakpoint unit root test; volatility;
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