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Are U.S. Corn and Soybeans Becoming More Drought Tolerant?

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  • Yu, Tian
  • Babcock, Bruce

Abstract

The hypothesis that corn and soybeans have become more drought tolerant is tested by regressing county yields on a drought index and time. Results indicate that corn yield losses from drought of a given severity, whether measured in quantity terms or as a percentage of mean yields, have decreased over time. Soybean percentage yield losses have also declined, but absolute losses have remained largely constant. The potential impact of increased drought tolerance on U.S. crop insurance rates is illustrated by comparing Group Risk Plan premium rates assuming time-invariant susceptibility to drought with rates generated from this article’s regression results.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Tian & Babcock, Bruce, 2010. "Are U.S. Corn and Soybeans Becoming More Drought Tolerant?," ISU General Staff Papers 201010210700001520, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:201010210700001520
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel O'Brien & Marvin Hayenga & Bruce Babcock, 1996. "Deriving Forecast Probability Distributions of Harvest-Time Corn Futures Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 167-180.
    2. Jerry R. Skees & J. Roy Black & Barry J. Barnett, 1997. "Designing and Rating an Area Yield Crop Insurance Contract," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 430-438.
    3. Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-434, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesse B. Tack & Matthew T. Holt, 2016. "The influence of weather extremes on the spatial correlation of corn yields," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 299-309, January.
    2. Xiaodong Du & David A. Hennessy & Cindy L. Yu, 2012. "Testing Day's Conjecture that More Nitrogen Decreases Crop Yield Skewness," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 225-237.
    3. Giri, Anil & Johnson, Bruce & Supalla, Raymond, 2016. "An Alternative Approach to Measuring Drought in the Corn Belt," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235628, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Xiaodong Du & Cindy L. Yu & David A. Hennessy & Ruiqing Miao, 2015. "Geography of crop yield skewness," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(4), pages 463-473, July.
    5. Leister, Amanda M. & Lee, John G. & Paarlberg, Philip L., 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Drought on the U.S. Livestock Sector," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149946, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Huang, Pei & McCarl, Bruce A., 2014. "Estimating Decadal Climate Variability Effects on Crop Yields: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169828, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Shen, Zhiwei, 2016. "Adaptive local parametric estimation of crop yields: implication for crop insurance ratemaking," 156th Seminar, October 4, 2016, Wagenigen, The Netherlands 249984, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Yu, Tian, 2011. "Three essays on weather and crop yield," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800002976, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Sung, Jae-hoon & Miranowski, John A., 2016. "Information technologies and field-level chemical use for corn production," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235858, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Woodard, Joshua D. & Chiu Verteramo, Leslie & Miller, Alyssa P., 2015. "Adaptation of U.S. Agricultural Production to Drought and Climate Change," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205903, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    11. Adhikari, Shyam & Knight, Thomas O. & Belasco, Eric J., 2012. "Evaluation of Crop Insurance Yield Guarantees and Producer Welfare with Upward-Trending Yields," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), December.
    12. Birthal, Pratap S. & Negi, Digvijay S. & Khan, Md. Tajuddin & Agarwal, Shaily, 2015. "Is Indian agriculture becoming resilient to droughts? Evidence from rice production systems," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-12.
    13. Peng, Yixing, 2015. "Three essays on biofuel, weather and corn yield," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005633, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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