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Impacts of Climate Change on Corn and Soybean Yields in China

  • Chen, Shuai
  • Chen, Xiaoguang
  • Xu, Jintao

Using a unique county-level panel on crop yields and daily weather dataset over the past decade, we estimate the impact of climate change on corn and soybean yields in China. Our results suggest the existence of nonlinear and asymmetric relationships between corn and soybean yields and climate variables. We find that extreme high temperatures are always harmful for crop growth. Moreover, the rapid expansion of corn and soybean acreages at both intensive- and extensive margins had detrimental effects on corn and soybean yields. Using estimated coefficients, we estimate changing climate conditions over the study period has led to an economic loss of $220 million in 2009 alone in China’s corn and soybean sectors. Corn yields in China are predicted to decrease by 2-5% under the slowest warming scenario and by 5-15% under the fastest warming scenario by the end of the century. The reductions in soybean yields are found to be more pronounced, about 5-10% and 8-22%, respectively.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/149739
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Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 149739.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:149739
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  1. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-33, May.
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  6. Weber, Christopher L. & Peters, Glen P. & Guan, Dabo & Hubacek, Klaus, 2008. "The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3572-3577, September.
  7. Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
  8. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
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