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A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture

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  • Steven Van Passel

    (Hasselt University, Faculty of Business Economics, Centre for Environmental Sciences, Agoralaan, Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies)

  • Emanuele Massetti

    (Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Robert Mendelsohn

    (Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies)

Abstract

This research estimates the impact of climate on European agriculture using a continental scale Ricardian analysis. Data on climate, soil, geography and regional socio-economic characteristics were matched for 37 612 individual farms across the EU-15. Farmland values across Europe are sensitive to climate. Even with the adaptation captured by the Ricardian technique, farms in Southern Europe are predicted to suffer sizeable losses (8% -13% per degree Celsius) from warming. In contrast, agriculture in the rest of Europe is likely to see only mixed impacts. Increases (decreases) in rain will increase (decrease) average farm values by 3% per centiliter of precipitation. Aggregate impacts by 2100 vary depending on the climate model scenario from a loss of 8% in a mild scenario to a loss of 44% in a harsh scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Van Passel & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn, 2012. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture," Working Papers 2012.83, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.83
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Md. Ruhul Amin & Junbiao Zhang & Mingmei Yang, 2015. "Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops: A Case of Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, January.
    5. Mariya Aleksandrova & Animesh K. Gain & Carlo Giupponi, 2016. "Assessing agricultural systems vulnerability to climate change to inform adaptation planning: an application in Khorezm, Uzbekistan," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(8), pages 1263-1287, December.
    6. Raza, Amar & Ahmad, Munir, 2015. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Productivity in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Arellano Gonzalez, Jesus, 2018. "Estimating climate change damages in data scarce and non-competitive settings: a novel version of the Ricardian approach with an application to Mexico," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274010, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Shahzad Alvi & Faisal Jamil & Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2020. "Do Farmers Adapt to Climate Change? A Macro Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    9. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2018. "Volatility Linkages between Energy and Food Prices: Case of Selected Asian Countries," ADBI Working Papers 829, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. Brian Reed & Robert Mendelsohn & Babatunde O. Abidoye, 2017. "The Economics Of Crop Adaptation To Climate Change In South-East Asia," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-20, August.
    11. DePaula, Guilherme, 2020. "The distributional effect of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from a Ricardian quantile analysis of Brazilian census data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    12. Van Passel, S. & Vanschoenwinkel, J. & Moretti, M., 2018. "The effect of policy leveraging climate change adaptive capacity in agriculture," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277059, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Orlińska-Woźniak, Paulina & Wilk, Paweł & Szalińska, Ewa, 2020. "Delimitation of nutrient vulnerable zones - a comprehensive method to manage a persistent problem of agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    14. Arouna, Aminou & Kouton, Baudelaire & Diagne, Aliou, 2015. "Impact of climate change on rice income: case study of four West African Countries," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 210958, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2019. "Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 796-806.
    16. Janka Vanschoenwinkel & Steven Passel, 2018. "Climate response of rainfed versus irrigated farms: the bias of farm heterogeneity in irrigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 225-234, March.
    17. Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea, 2020. "The Role of Nonfarm Influences in Ricardian Estimates of Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 934-959, May.
    18. Yuquan W. Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Mark Musumba & Bruce A. McCarl & Xiaokun Gu & Yuanfei Zhou & Zhengwei Cao & Qiang Li, 2018. "The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    19. Trong Anh Trinh, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(4), pages 897-921, December.
    20. Emanuele Massetti & Steven Van Passel & Camila Apablaza, 2018. "Is Western European Agriculture Resilient to High Temperatures?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7286, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ricardian Analysis; Climate Change; European Agriculture; Climate Change Economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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