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The impact of climate change on agro-ecological zones: evidence from Africa

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  • Kala, Namrata
  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
  • Mendelsohn, Robert

Abstract

This study predicts the impact of climate change on African agriculture. We use a generalized linear model (GLM) framework to estimate the relationship between the proportion of various Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in a district and climate. Using three climate scenarios, we project how climate change will cause AEZs to shift, causing changes in acreage and net revenue per hectare of cropland. Our results predict that Africa will suffer heavy annual welfare losses by 2070–2100, ranging between US$14 billion and US$70 billion, depending on the climate scenario and cropland measure considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Kala, Namrata & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2012. "The impact of climate change on agro-ecological zones: evidence from Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 663-687, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:17:y:2012:i:06:p:663-687_00
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    1. repec:kap:enreec:v:67:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10640-016-0001-y is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Steven Passel & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn, 2017. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 725-760, August.
    3. Ji, Xinde & Cobourn, Kelly M., 2017. "The Economic Benefits of Irrigation Districts under Prior Appropriation Doctrine: An Econometric Analysis of Agricultural Land-allocation Decisions," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252838, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Fenske, James & Kala, Namrata, 2015. "Climate and the slave trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 19-32.
    5. Perrings, Charles, 2014. "Environment and development economics 20 years on," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 333-366, June.

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