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A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Steven Passel

    (University of Antwerp
    Yale University
    Hasselt University)

  • Emanuele Massetti

    (Georgia Institute of Technology)

  • Robert Mendelsohn

    (Yale University)

Abstract

This research estimates the impact of climate on European agriculture using a continental scale Ricardian analysis. Climate, soil, geography and regional socio-economic variables are matched with farm level data from 41,030 farms across Western Europe. We demonstrate that a median quantile regression outperforms OLS given farm level data. The results suggest that European farms are slightly more sensitive to warming than American farms with impacts from $$+$$ + 5 to $$-$$ - 32 % by 2100 depending on the climate scenario. Farms in Southern Europe are predicted to be particularly sensitive, suffering losses of $$-$$ - 5 to $$-$$ - 9 % per degree Celsius.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Passel & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn, 2017. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 725-760, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:67:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10640-016-0001-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-016-0001-y
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    3. Slaboch, Josef & Čechura, Lukáš, 2020. "Land Pricing Model: Price Re-evaluation Due to the Erosion and Climate Change Effects," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 10(3), December.
    4. Arouna, Aminou & Kouton, Baudelaire & Diagne, Aliou, 2015. "Impact of climate change on rice income: case study of four West African Countries," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 210958, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2019. "Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 796-806.
    6. Janka Vanschoenwinkel & Steven Passel, 2018. "Climate response of rainfed versus irrigated farms: the bias of farm heterogeneity in irrigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 225-234, March.
    7. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2018. "Volatility Linkages between Energy and Food Prices: Case of Selected Asian Countries," ADBI Working Papers 829, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Brian Reed & Robert Mendelsohn & Babatunde O. Abidoye, 2017. "The Economics Of Crop Adaptation To Climate Change In South-East Asia," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-20, August.
    9. Jawid, Asadullah, 2020. "A Ricardian analysis of the economic impact of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from the farms in the central highlands of Afghanistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Arellano Gonzalez, Jesus, 2018. "Estimating climate change damages in data scarce and non-competitive settings: a novel version of the Ricardian approach with an application to Mexico," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274010, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea, 2020. "The Role of Nonfarm Influences in Ricardian Estimates of Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 934-959, May.
    12. Olper, Alessandro & Maugeri, Maurizio & Manara, Veronica & Raimondi, Valentina, 2021. "Weather, climate and economic outcomes: Evidence from Italy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    13. Mosavi, Seyed Habibollah & Soltani, Shiva & Khalilian, Sadegh, 2020. "Coping with climate change in agriculture: Evidence from Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    14. Yuquan W. Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Mark Musumba & Bruce A. McCarl & Xiaokun Gu & Yuanfei Zhou & Zhengwei Cao & Qiang Li, 2018. "The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    15. Anubhab Pattanayak & K. S. Kavi Kumar, "undated". "Does Weather Sensitivity of Rice Yield Vary Across Regions? Evidence from Eastern and Southern India," Working Papers 2017-162, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    16. DePaula, Guilherme, 2020. "The distributional effect of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from a Ricardian quantile analysis of Brazilian census data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    17. Van Passel, S. & Vanschoenwinkel, J. & Moretti, M., 2018. "The effect of policy leveraging climate change adaptive capacity in agriculture," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277059, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Md. Ruhul Amin & Junbiao Zhang & Mingmei Yang, 2015. "Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops: A Case of Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, January.
    19. Mariya Aleksandrova & Animesh K. Gain & Carlo Giupponi, 2016. "Assessing agricultural systems vulnerability to climate change to inform adaptation planning: an application in Khorezm, Uzbekistan," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(8), pages 1263-1287, December.
    20. Shahzad Alvi & Faisal Jamil & Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2020. "Do Farmers Adapt to Climate Change? A Macro Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    21. Sabrina Auci & Nicolò Barbieri & Manuela Coromaldi & Donatella Vignani, 2021. "Innovation for climate change adaptation and technical efficiency: an empirical analysis in the European agricultural sector," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 597-623, July.
    22. Trong Anh Trinh, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(4), pages 897-921, December.
    23. Moretti, Michele & Vanschoenwinkel, Janka & Van Passel, Steven, 2021. "Accounting for externalities in cross-sectional economic models of climate change impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    24. Emanuele Massetti & Steven Van Passel & Camila Apablaza, 2018. "Is Western European Agriculture Resilient to High Temperatures?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7286, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ricardian analysis; Climate change; European agriculture; Climate change economics; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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