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The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Yuquan W.
  • Mu, Jianhong E.
  • Musumba, Mark

Abstract

Climate change (CC) can influence farmers’ crop choices and result in changes in the regionally varying crop mixes. Using a data set including sown area shares for each crop at province level over the most recent time period of 2000 through 2013 in China, this study employed a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) system to investigate the effects of climate variables on regional crop mixes. The influence of economic and land use intensity on crop area shares were also examined. Results show that winter temperature appears to be a more determining factor than growing season temperature for a region’s crop mix. Also regions with comparatively high farming values tend to see larger percentages of vegetables and orchards. As temperature rises, grains and soybeans that are linked to traditional food security may encounter compromises in production, whereas tubers, small oil crops, vegetables, and orchards would very likely see increases in area shares. Nonetheless, vegetables and orchards may not necessarily step in under future CC due to cost and land use intensity reasons.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yuquan W. & Mu, Jianhong E. & Musumba, Mark, 2016. "The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea16:235387
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/235387/files/AAEA%20Crop%20Mix%20Study%20Zhang%20Mu%20Musumba%202016.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jinxia Wang & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle & Lijuan Zhang, 2009. "The impact of climate change on China's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 323-337, May.
    2. Cho, Sung Ju & McCarl, Bruce A. & Wu, Ximing, 2014. "Climate Change Adaptation and Shifts in Land Use for Major Crops in the U.S," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170015, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics;

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