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Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Austrian Agriculture

Author

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  • Schönhart, Martin
  • Mitter, Hermine
  • Schmid, Erwin
  • Heinrich, Georg
  • Gobiet, Andreas

Abstract

An integrated modelling framework (IMF) has been developed and applied to analyse climate change impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture. The IMF couples the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bottom-up economic land use model PASMA at regional level (NUTS-3) considering agrienvironmental indicators. Four contrasting regional climate model (RCM) simulations represent climate change until 2050. The RCM simulations are applied to a baseline and three adaptation and policy scenarios. Climate change increases crop productivity on national average in the IMF. Changes in average gross margins at national level range from 0% to +5% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. The impacts at NUTS-3 level range from -5% to +7% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. Adaptation measures such as planting of winter cover crops, reduced tillage and irrigation are effective in reducing yield losses, increasing revenues, or in improving environmental states under climate change. Future research should account for extreme weather events in order to analyse whether average productivity gains at the aggregated level suffice to cover costs from expected higher climate variability. Anhand eines integrativen Modellverbundes werden die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die österreichische Landwirtschaft und die Effektivität von Anpassungsmaßnahmen untersucht. Grundlage der Szenarienanalyse sind vier kontrastierende regionale Klimasimulationen, angewandt auf ein Baselineszenario und drei Anpassungs- und Politikszenarien bis 2050. Der integrative Modellverbund koppelt das Fruchtfolgemodell CropRota, das bio-physikalische Prozessmodell EPIC mit dem ökonomischen Landnutzungsmodell PASMA, berücksichtigt Agrarumweltindikatoren und wird auf NUTS-3-Ebene angewandt. Die Klimasimulationen lassen im nationalen Durchschnitt auf Produktivitätssteigerungen in der Pflanzenproduktion schließen. Im Vergleich zur Baseline steigen die durchschnittlichen nationalen Deckungsbeiträge je nach Klimasimulation und Anpassungsund Politikszenario um 0% bis +5%. Auf NUTS- 3-Ebene ergibt sich aufgrund standörtlicher Unterschiede (z.B. Klimawandel, Landnutzung, naturräumliche Gegebenheiten) ein differenzierteres Bild mit Änderungen zwischen -5% und +7%. Der Zwischenfruchtanbau, die reduzierte Bodenbearbeitung und die Bewässerung sind effektive Anpassungsmaßnahmen, die zur Verringerung von Ertragseinbußen, Steigerungen von Erlösen oder zur Verbesserung der Umweltsituation beitragen. Weiterführende Forschungsarbeiten sollten vermehrt auf die Auswirkungen von Extremereignissen in der Landwirtschaft eingehen und klären, ob die durchschnittlichen Produktivitätssteigerungen ausreichen, die Kosten einer erwarteten höheren Wettervariabilität zu kompensieren.

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  • Schönhart, Martin & Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin & Heinrich, Georg & Gobiet, Andreas, 2014. "Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Austrian Agriculture," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 63(03), pages 1-21, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:253157
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.253157
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    2. Kirchner, Mathias & Schönhart, Martin & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "Spatial impacts of the CAP post-2013 and climate change scenarios on agricultural intensification and environment in Austria," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 35-56.
    3. Cortignani, Raffaele & Dell’Unto, Davide & Dono, Gabriele, 2021. "Paths of adaptation to climate change in major Italian agricultural areas: Effectiveness and limits in supporting the profitability of farms," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    4. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Dell'Unto, Davide & Deligios, Paola & Doro, Luca & Lacetera, Nicola & Mula, Laura & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Quaresima, Sara & Vitali, Andrea & Roggero, Pier Paol, 2016. "Winners and losers from climate change in agriculture: Insights from a case study in the Mediterranean basin," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 65-75.
    5. Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin, 2019. "Computing the economic value of climate information for water stress management exemplified by crop production in Austria," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 430-448.
    6. Schönhart, Martin & Schauppenlehner, Thomas & Kuttner, Michael & Kirchner, Mathias & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "Climate change impacts on farm production, landscape appearance, and the environment: Policy scenario results from an integrated field-farm-landscape model in Austria," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 39-50.
    7. Kirchner, Mathias & Schmidt, Johannes & Kindermann, Georg & Kulmer, Veronika & Mitter, Hermine & Prettenthaler, Franz & Rüdisser, Johannes & Schauppenlehner, Thomas & Schönhart, Martin & Strauss, Fran, 2015. "Ecosystem services and economic development in Austrian agricultural landscapes — The impact of policy and climate change scenarios on trade-offs and synergies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 161-174.
    8. Schönhart, Martin & Sinabell, Franz & Schmid, Erwin, 2015. "Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on a Grassland Dominated Austrian Landscape," 150th Seminar, October 22-23, 2015, Edinburgh, Scotland 212675, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Schönhart, Martin & Trautvetter, Helene & Parajka, Juraj & Blaschke, Alfred Paul & Hepp, Gerold & Kirchner, Mathias & Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin & Strenn, Birgit & Zessner, Matthias, 2018. "Modelled impacts of policies and climate change on land use and water quality in Austria," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 500-514.
    10. Sabina Thaler & Herbert Formayer & Gerhard Kubu & Miroslav Trnka & Josef Eitzinger, 2021. "Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-39, October.
    11. Franz Sinabell & Martin Schönhart & Erwin Schmid, 2018. "Austrian Agriculture 2020-2050. Scenarios and Sensitivity Analyses on Land Use, Production, Livestock and Production Systems," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61571, February.

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