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Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach


  • Henseler, Martin
  • Wirsig, Alexander
  • Herrmann, Sylvia
  • Krimly, Tatjana
  • Dabbert, Stephan


Assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture is a new challenge for quantitative model-based policy analysis. The impact of climate change will vary strongly across regions depending on pre-existing climatic, agronomic, and political conditions. Most of the present modeling approaches, which aim to analyze the impact of global change on agriculture, deliver aggregated results both with regard to content and spatial resolution. To deliver results with a higher spatial resolution and to produce a more detailed picture of agricultural production, the county-based agro-economic model known as ACRE-Danube was developed. The German and Austrian part of the Upper Danube basin, a study area with great diversity in agricultural landscapes and climatic conditions, was chosen for study. For the analysis, two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change were derived. The first and more economically and globally oriented scenario, termed "Full Liberalization," included significant temperature increases. The second and more environmentally and regionally oriented "Full Protection" scenario included a moderate temperature increase. Both scenarios produce different results regarding agricultural income and land use. While the developments in the Full Protection scenario are small, the Full Liberalization scenario yields extreme regional changes in agricultural income, an increase in cereal production and extensive grassland farming.

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  • Henseler, Martin & Wirsig, Alexander & Herrmann, Sylvia & Krimly, Tatjana & Dabbert, Stephan, 2009. "Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 100(1-3), pages 31-42, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:100:y:2009:i:1-3:p:31-42

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Flichman, Guillermo & Donatelli, Marcello & Louhichi, M.K. & Romstad, Eirik & Heckelei, Thomas & Auclair, D. & Garvey, E. & van Ittersum, Martin K. & Janssen, Sander J.C. & Elbersen, Berien S., 2006. "Quantitative models of SEAMLESS-IF and procedures for up-and downscaling," Reports 9297, Wageningen University, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society.
    2. Helming, John F.M. & van Berkum, Siemen, 2008. "Effects of abolition of the EU milk quota system for Dutch agriculture and environment," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43966, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Ottmar Röhm & Stephan Dabbert, 2003. "Integrating Agri-Environmental Programs into Regional Production Models: An Extension of Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 254-265.
    4. Fragoso, Rui Manuel de Sousa & Carvalho, Maria Leonor da Silva & Henriques, Pedro Damiao de Sousa, 2008. "Positive Mathematical Programming: a Comparison of Different Specification Rules," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44242, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Henseler, Martin & Wirsig, Alexander & Krimly, Tatjana, 2005. "Development, Testing and Application of ACRE: An Agro-Economic Production Model on Regional Level," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24770, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Henseler, Martin & Wirsig, Alexander & Krimly, Tatjana & Dabbert, Stephan, 2008. "The influence of climate change, technological progress and political change on agricultural land use: calculated scenarios for the Upper Danube catchment area," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(03-04), pages 1-13.
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