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Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach

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  • Henseler, Martin
  • Wirsig, Alexander
  • Herrmann, Sylvia
  • Krimly, Tatjana
  • Dabbert, Stephan

Abstract

Assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture is a new challenge for quantitative model-based policy analysis. The impact of climate change will vary strongly across regions depending on pre-existing climatic, agronomic, and political conditions. Most of the present modeling approaches, which aim to analyze the impact of global change on agriculture, deliver aggregated results both with regard to content and spatial resolution. To deliver results with a higher spatial resolution and to produce a more detailed picture of agricultural production, the county-based agro-economic model known as ACRE-Danube was developed. The German and Austrian part of the Upper Danube basin, a study area with great diversity in agricultural landscapes and climatic conditions, was chosen for study. For the analysis, two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change were derived. The first and more economically and globally oriented scenario, termed "Full Liberalization," included significant temperature increases. The second and more environmentally and regionally oriented "Full Protection" scenario included a moderate temperature increase. Both scenarios produce different results regarding agricultural income and land use. While the developments in the Full Protection scenario are small, the Full Liberalization scenario yields extreme regional changes in agricultural income, an increase in cereal production and extensive grassland farming.

Suggested Citation

  • Henseler, Martin & Wirsig, Alexander & Herrmann, Sylvia & Krimly, Tatjana & Dabbert, Stephan, 2009. "Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 100(1-3), pages 31-42, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:100:y:2009:i:1-3:p:31-42
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kirchner, Mathias & Schmid, Erwin, 2012. "How Do Agricultural Trade Policies Affect The Regional Environment? An Integrated Analysis For The Austrian Marchfeld Region," 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 137160, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    2. Gallego-Ayala, Jordi & Gómez-Limón Rodríguez, José A., 2010. "Evaluación del impacto de la tarifación del agua de riego sobre la sostenibilidad del regadío: una aproximación a través de indicadores sintéticos/Impact assessment of irrigation water pricing in irri," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 375-404, Agosto.
    3. Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Flichman, Guillermo, 2011. "Cost-effectiveness of groundwater conservation measures: A multi-level analysis with policy implications," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(4), pages 639-652, February.
    4. Yuanyuan Yang & Shuwen Zhang & Dongyan Wang & Jiuchun Yang & Xiaoshi Xing, 2014. "Spatiotemporal Changes of Farming-Pastoral Ecotone in Northern China, 1954–2005: A Case Study in Zhenlai County, Jilin Province," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Kirchner, Mathias & Schönhart, Martin & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "Spatial impacts of the CAP post-2013 and climate change scenarios on agricultural intensification and environment in Austria," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 35-56.
    6. Schönhart, Martin & Schauppenlehner, Thomas & Kuttner, Michael & Kirchner, Mathias & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "Climate change impacts on farm production, landscape appearance, and the environment: Policy scenario results from an integrated field-farm-landscape model in Austria," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 39-50.
    7. Graveline, N. & Loubier, S. & Gleyses, G. & Rinaudo, J.-D., 2012. "Impact of farming on water resources: Assessing uncertainty with Monte Carlo simulations in a global change context," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 29-41.
    8. Graeme J. Doole & David J. Pannell, 2012. "Empirical evaluation of nonpoint pollution policies under agent heterogeneity: regulating intensive dairy production in the Waikato region of New Zealand," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(1), pages 82-101, January.
    9. Roberto Ponce & María Blanco & Carlo Giupponi, 2014. "Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and the Country-Level Economic Impacts. A Multimarket Analysis," Serie Working Papers 02, Universidad del Desarrollo, School of Business and Economics, revised Nov 2014.
    10. Schönhart, Martin & Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin & Heinrich, Georg & Gobiet, Andreas, 2014. "Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Austrian Agriculture," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(3).
    11. Doole, Graeme & Pannell, David J., 2011. "Evaluating environmental policies under uncertainty through application of robust nonlinear programming," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(4), December.
    12. Roland Barthel & Tim Reichenau & Tatjana Krimly & Stephan Dabbert & Karl Schneider & Wolfram Mauser, 2012. "Integrated Modeling of Global Change Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(7), pages 1929-1951, May.
    13. Kirchner, Mathias & Schmidt, Johannes & Kindermann, Georg & Kulmer, Veronika & Mitter, Hermine & Prettenthaler, Franz & Rüdisser, Johannes & Schauppenlehner, Thomas & Schönhart, Martin & Strauss, Fran, 2015. "Ecosystem services and economic development in Austrian agricultural landscapes — The impact of policy and climate change scenarios on trade-offs and synergies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 161-174.
    14. Iddo Kan & Ofira Ayalon & Roy Federman, 2010. "On the efficiency of composting organic wastes," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 151-163, March.
    15. Henseler, Martin & Dechow, Rene, 2014. "Simulation of regional nitrous oxide emissions from German agricultural mineral soils: A linkage between an agro-economic model and an empirical emission model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 70-82.
    16. Varela-Ortega, Consuelo, 2011. "Participatory Modeling for Sustainable Development in Water and Agrarian Systems: Potential and Limits of Stakeholder Involvement," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115546, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Kirchner, Mathias & Schonhart, Martin & Schmid, Erwin, 2015. "The impacst of CAP post-2013 and regional climate change on agricultural land use intensity and the environment in Austria," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212004, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Schönhart, Martin & Schauppenlehner, Thomas & Schmid, Erwin, 2014. "Integrated land use modelling of climate change impacts in two Austrian case study landscapes at field level," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182680, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Blanco-Gutierrez, Irene & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Purkey, David R., 2011. "Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Analysis Of Policy Responses To Promote Sustainable Water Use Under Changing Climatic Conditions," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114253, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Aurbacher, Joachim & Parker, Phillip S. & Calberto Sánchez, Germán A. & Steinbach, Jennifer & Reinmuth, Evelyn & Ingwersen, Joachim & Dabbert, Stephan, 2013. "Influence of climate change on short term management of field crops – A modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 44-57.

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