IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v269y2022ics0378377422002293.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Water management policy analysis: Insight from a calibration-based inexact programming method

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Shuping
  • Tan, Qian
  • Zhang, Tianyuan
  • Zhang, Tong

Abstract

Predicting the impacts of water management policies under uncertainty can support policy-makers in making sound decisions. Most previous methods for policy-impact simulation lacked a calibration process that would allow model results to match observed values, and did not address the inherent uncertainties. To fill this methodological knowledge gap, an interval credibility-constrained positive mathematical programming (ICPMP) approach was first developed in this study for simulating the impacts of water management policies. This method improved over traditional positive mathematical programming in terms of uncertainty treatment. It also improved upon inexact programming methods through activating a calibration process. ICPMP was then coupled with a multi-attribute decision-making approach, leading to a simulation-evaluation method that could support the analysis and screening of policy alternatives. This method has been applied to an agricultural water management problem in northwestern China. Various policy alternatives corresponding to different water prices and varied fuzzy credibility levels of water availability were investigated. The impacts of these alternatives over farmers’ income, irrigation water consumption, benefit per cubic meter of water, planting area, and fertilizer use were simulated through ICPMP. Forty policy alternatives with better indicator performances were selected to be comprehensively evaluated using the multi-attribute decision-making approach. The results indicated that when the decision-makers have a positive preference for water availability, the water price at the turning point of water use efficiency (i.e. benefit per cubic of water) was recommended. When decision-makers have conservative attitude towards water availability, it was recommended to keep the water price unchanged. Comparisons of ICPMP against traditional methods indicated that, ICPMP could generate more reliable results through incorporating uncertain information as inputs and reproducing actual situation. As well, solutions of ICPMP could provide in-depth analysis of the trade-offs between violation risk and system benefits. ICPMP and the associated simulation-evaluation method are also applicable to analyze other types of policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Shuping & Tan, Qian & Zhang, Tianyuan & Zhang, Tong, 2022. "Water management policy analysis: Insight from a calibration-based inexact programming method," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:269:y:2022:i:c:s0378377422002293
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107682
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377422002293
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107682?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ottmar Röhm & Stephan Dabbert, 2003. "Integrating Agri-Environmental Programs into Regional Production Models: An Extension of Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 254-265.
    2. Ali, Md Kamar & Klein, K.K., 2014. "Implications of current and alternative water allocation policies in the Bow River Sub Basin of Southern Alberta," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Huang, G. H. & Baetz, B. W. & Patry, G. G., 1995. "Grey fuzzy integer programming: An application to regional waste management planning under uncertainty," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 17-38, March.
    4. Abdoulkarim Esmaeili & Solmaz Vazirzadeh, 2009. "Water Pricing for Agricultural Production in the South of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 957-964, March.
    5. Pérez-Blanco, C. D & Standardi, G., 2019. "Farm waters run deep: a coupled positive multi-attribute utility programming and computable general equilibrium model to assess the economy-wide impacts of water buyback," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 336-351.
    6. Zamani, Omid & Grundmann, Philipp & Libra, Judy A. & Nikouei, Alireza, 2019. "Limiting and timing water supply for agricultural production – The case of the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 322-335.
    7. Janssen, Sander & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2007. "Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: A review of bio-economic farm models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 622-636, June.
    8. Zhang, Chenglong & Guo, Ping & Huo, Zailin, 2021. "Irrigation water resources management under uncertainty: An interval nonlinear double-sided fuzzy chance-constrained programming approach," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    9. Xuan Liu & Gerrit Cornelis van Kooten & Jun Duan, 2020. "Calibration of agricultural risk programming models using positive mathematical programming," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 795-817, July.
    10. Mohammad Ali Asaadi & Seyed Abolghasem Mortazavi & Omid Zamani & Gholam Hassan Najafi & Talal Yusaf & Seyed Salar Hoseini, 2019. "The Impacts of Water Pricing and Non-Pricing Policies on Sustainable Water Resources Management: A Case of Ghorveh Plain at Kurdistan Province, Iran," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.
    11. Arata, Linda & Donati, Michele & Sckokai, Paolo & Arfini, Filippo, 2017. "Incorporating risk in a positive mathematical programming framework: a dual approach," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(2), April.
    12. Doole, Graeme J. & Pannell, David J., 2009. "Nonpoint pollution policy evaluation under ambiguity," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 48036, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    13. Richard E. Howitt, 1995. "Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 329-342.
    14. Fragoso, R. & Marques, C. & Lucas, M.R. & Martins, M.B. & Jorge, R., 2011. "The economic effects of common agricultural policy on Mediterranean montado/dehesa ecosystem," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 311-327, March.
    15. Christian Franco-Crespo & Jose Maria Sumpsi Viñas, 2017. "The Impact of Pricing Policies on Irrigation Water for Agro-Food Farms in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-18, August.
    16. He, Lixia & Horbulyk, Theodore M. & Ali, Md. Kamar & Le Roy, Danny G. & Klein, K.K., 2012. "Proportional water sharing vs. seniority-based allocation in the Bow River basin of Southern Alberta," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 21-31.
    17. Huang, Guo H. & Baetz, Brian W. & Patry, Gilles G., 1995. "Grey integer programming: An application to waste management planning under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 594-620, June.
    18. Zhang, Mei-Jing & Wang, Ying-Ming & Li, Ling-Hui & Chen, Sheng-Qun, 2017. "A general evidential reasoning algorithm for multi-attribute decision analysis under interval uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(3), pages 1005-1015.
    19. Maharjan, Rajali & Hanaoka, Shinya, 2020. "A credibility-based multi-objective temporary logistics hub location-allocation model for relief supply and distribution under uncertainty," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. F. Huang & G. Wang & Y. Yang & C. Wang, 2014. "Overexploitation status of groundwater and induced geological hazards in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 727-741, September.
    21. Suwal, Naresh & Huang, Xianfeng & Kuriqi, Alban & Chen, Yingqin & Pandey, Kamal Prasad & Bhattarai, Khem Prasad, 2020. "Optimisation of cascade reservoir operation considering environmental flows for different environmental management classes," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 453-464.
    22. Riesgo, Laura & Gomez-Limon, Jose A., 2006. "Multi-criteria policy scenario analysis for public regulation of irrigated agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 1-28, November.
    23. Ray Quay & Faith Sternlieb & Eleanor Rauh & Riley Andrade & Anna Bartholomew & Dave White & Jim Holway & Zachary Sugg & Erin Rugland, 2022. "Evaluating the effectiveness of land and water integrative practices for achieving water sustainability within the Colorado River Basin: perceptions and indicators," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 257-277, February.
    24. Zhang, Chenglong & Li, Xuemin & Guo, Ping & Huo, Zailin, 2020. "An improved interval-based fuzzy credibility-constrained programming approach for supporting optimal irrigation water management under uncertainty," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    25. Gómez-Limón, José A. & Sanchez-Fernandez, Gabriela, 2010. "Empirical evaluation of agricultural sustainability using composite indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 1062-1075, March.
    26. Kang, Shaozhong & Hao, Xinmei & Du, Taisheng & Tong, Ling & Su, Xiaoling & Lu, Hongna & Li, Xiaolin & Huo, Zailin & Li, Sien & Ding, Risheng, 2017. "Improving agricultural water productivity to ensure food security in China under changing environment: From research to practice," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 5-17.
    27. Aida Mehrazar & Ali Reza Massah Bavani & Alireza Gohari & Mahmoud Mashal & Hadisseh Rahimikhoob, 2020. "Adaptation of Water Resources System to Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Suburb Area of Megacities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(12), pages 3855-3877, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 127-145, January.
    2. Md Kamar Ali, 2016. "Improving Allocative Efficiency of Scarce Water in Southern Alberta," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Jon Duan & G. Cornelis van Kooten & A. T. M. Hasibul Islam, 2023. "Calibration of Grid Models for Analyzing Energy Policies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Liu, Xuan & van Kooten, Gerrit Cornelis & Duan, Jun, 2020. "Calibration of agricultural risk programming models using positive mathematical programming," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    5. Louhichi, Kamel & Flichman, Guillermo & Blanco Fonseca, Maria, 2009. "A generic template for FSSIM," Reports 57463, Wageningen University, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society.
    6. Yan, Tingting & Wang, Jinxia & Huang, Jikun, 2015. "Urbanization, agricultural water use, and regional and national crop production in China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 226-235.
    7. Ali, Md Kamar & Klein, K.K., 2014. "Implications of current and alternative water allocation policies in the Bow River Sub Basin of Southern Alberta," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 1-11.
    8. Athanasios Petsakos & Stelios Rozakis, 2022. "Models and muddles: comment on ‘Calibration of agricultural risk programming models using positive mathematical programming’," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(3), pages 713-728, July.
    9. Mugurel Ionel JITEA & Diana Elena DUMITRAȘ & Vasile Alexandru SIMU, 2015. "An ex-ante impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy reform in the North-Western Romania," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 61(2), pages 88-103.
    10. Reidsma, Pytrik & Janssen, Sander & Jansen, Jacques & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2018. "On the development and use of farm models for policy impact assessment in the European Union – A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 111-125.
    11. Britz, Wolfgang & Heckelei, Thomas, 2008. "Recent Developments In Eu Policies – Challenges For Partial Equilibrium Models," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6315, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Christina Moulogianni, 2022. "Comparison of Selected Mathematical Programming Models Used for Sustainable Land and Farm Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, August.
    13. Louhichi, Kamel & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Janssen, Sander & Flichman, Guillermo & Blanco, Maria & Hengsdijk, Huib & Heckelei, Thomas & Berentsen, Paul & Lansink, Alfons Oude & Ittersum, Martin Van, 2010. "FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(8), pages 585-597, October.
    14. Sapino, Francesco & Pérez-Blanco, C. Dionisio & Gutiérrez-Martín, Carlos & García-Prats, Alberto & Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel, 2022. "Influence of crop-water production functions on the expected performance of water pricing policies in irrigated agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    15. Christina Moulogianni & Thomas Bournaris, 2021. "Assessing the Impacts of Rural Development Plan Measures on the Sustainability of Agricultural Holdings Using a PMP Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-13, April.
    16. Torbjörn Jansson & Staffan Waldo, 2022. "Managing Marine Mammals and Fisheries: A Calibrated Programming Model for the Seal-Fishery Interaction in Sweden," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 81(3), pages 501-530, March.
    17. Cao, Zhaodan & Zhu, Tingju & Cai, Ximing, 2023. "Hydro-agro-economic optimization for irrigated farming in an arid region: The Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    18. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Chen, X., 2011. "An interval-valued minimax-regret analysis approach for the identification of optimal greenhouse-gas abatement strategies under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4313-4324, July.
    19. Franz Sinabell & Martin Schönhart & Erwin Schmid, 2015. "Austrian Agriculture 2010-2050. Quantitative Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Measures – An Analysis of the Scenarios WEM, WAM and a Sensitivity Analysis of the Scenario WEM," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58400.
    20. Zamani, Omid & Azadi, Hossein & Mortazavi, Seyed Abolghasem & Balali, Hamid & Moghaddam, Saghi Movahhed & Jurik, Lubos, 2021. "The impact of water-pricing policies on water productivity: Evidence of agriculture sector in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:269:y:2022:i:c:s0378377422002293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.