IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v159y2018icp111-125.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the development and use of farm models for policy impact assessment in the European Union – A review

Author

Listed:
  • Reidsma, Pytrik
  • Janssen, Sander
  • Jansen, Jacques
  • van Ittersum, Martin K.

Abstract

Farm models are potentially relevant tools for policy impact assessment. Governments and international organizations use impact assessment (IA) as an ex-ante policy process and procedure to evaluate impacts of policy options as part of the introduction of new policies. IA is increasingly used. This paper reviews both the use of farm models in such policy IAs in the European Commission, and the development and use of farm models for policy IA by the scientific community over the past decade. A systematic review was performed, based on 202 studies from the period 2007–2015 and results were discussed in a science-policy workshop. Based on the literature review and the workshop, this paper describes progress in the development of farm models, challenges in their use in policy processes and a research and cooperation agenda. We conclude that main issues for a research agenda include: 1) better understanding of farmer decision-making and effects of the social milieu, with increased focus on the interactions between farmers and other actors, the link to the value chain, and farm structural change; 2) thorough and consistent model evaluation and model comparison, with increased attention for model sensitivity and uncertainty, and 3) the organization of a network of farm modellers. In addition, the agenda for science-policy cooperation emphasizes the need for: 4) synthesizing research evidence into systematic reviews as an institutional element in the existing science-policy-interfaces for agricultural systems, 5) improved and timely data collection, allowing to assess heterogeneity in farm objectives, management and indicators, and 6) stronger science-policy interaction, moving from a research-driven to a user-driven approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Reidsma, Pytrik & Janssen, Sander & Jansen, Jacques & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2018. "On the development and use of farm models for policy impact assessment in the European Union – A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 111-125.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:159:y:2018:i:c:p:111-125
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.10.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X17304353
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Happe, Kathrin & Balmann, Alfons & Kellermann, Konrad & Sahrbacher, Christoph, 2008. "Does structure matter? The impact of switching the agricultural policy regime on farm structures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 431-444, August.
    2. Happe, K. & Hutchings, N.J. & Dalgaard, T. & Kellerman, K., 2011. "Modelling the interactions between regional farming structure, nitrogen losses and environmental regulation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 281-291, March.
    3. Peter Zander & Jeroen C.J. Groot & Etienne Josien & Isabella Karpinski & Andrea Knierim & Burghard C. Meyer & Livia Madureira & Mbolatiana Rambonilaza & Walter A.H. Rossing, 2008. "Farm models and economic valuation in the context of multifunctionality: a review of approaches from France, Germany, The Netherlands and Portugal," International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(4/5), pages 339-360.
    4. Julia Hertin & John Turnpenny & Andrew Jordan & Mans Nilsson & Duncan Russel & Björn Nykvist, 2009. "Rationalising the Policy Mess? Ex Ante Policy Assessment and the Utilisation of Knowledge in the Policy Process," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 41(5), pages 1185-1200, May.
    5. A O Kazakçi & S Rozakis & D Vanderpooten, 2007. "Energy crop supply in France: a min-max regret approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(11), pages 1470-1479, November.
    6. Oliver Balkhausen & Martin Banse & Harald Grethe, 2008. "Modelling CAP Decoupling in the EU: A Comparison of Selected Simulation Models and Results," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 57-71, February.
    7. Schneider, Uwe A. & Havlík, Petr & Schmid, Erwin & Valin, Hugo & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael & Böttcher, Hannes & Skalský, Rastislav & Balkovic, Juraj & Sauer, Timm & Fritz, Steffen, 2011. "Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 204-215, February.
    8. Britz, Wolfgang & Gocht, Alexander & Domínguez, Ignacio Pérez & Jansson, Torbjörn & Grosche, Stephanie-Carolin & Zhao, Na, 2012. "EU-Wide (Regional and Farm Level) Effects of Premium Decoupling and Harmonisation Following the Health Check Reform," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61(1).
    9. Herzfeld, Thomas & Jongeneel, Roel, 2012. "Why do farmers behave as they do? Understanding compliance with rural, agricultural, and food attribute standards," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 250-260.
    10. Janssen, Sander & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2007. "Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: A review of bio-economic farm models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 622-636, June.
    11. Thomas Bournaris & Jason Papathanasiou, 2012. "A DSS for planning the agricultural production," International Journal of Business Innovation and Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 117-134.
    12. Reidsma, Pytrik & Bakker, Martha M. & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Alam, Shah J. & Paas, Wim & Kros, Johannes & de Vries, Wim, 2015. "Sustainable agricultural development in a rural area in the Netherlands? Assessing impacts of climate and socio-economic change at farm and landscape level," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 160-173.
    13. Wolf, Joost & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Kros, Johannes & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Britz, Wolfgang & Reinds, Gert Jan & Ewert, Frank & de Vries, Wim, 2015. "Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 56-73.
    14. Bartolini, Fabio & Viaggi, Davide, 2012. "An analysis of policy scenario effects on the adoption of energy production on the farm: A case study in Emilia–Romagna (Italy)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 454-464.
    15. Louhichi, Kamel & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Janssen, Sander & Flichman, Guillermo & Blanco, Maria & Hengsdijk, Huib & Heckelei, Thomas & Berentsen, Paul & Lansink, Alfons Oude & Ittersum, Martin Van, 2010. "FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(8), pages 585-597, October.
    16. Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Flichman, Guillermo, 2011. "Cost-effectiveness of groundwater conservation measures: A multi-level analysis with policy implications," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(4), pages 639-652, February.
    17. Heikkinen, T. & Pietola, K., 2009. "Investment and the dynamic cost of income uncertainty: The case of diminishing expectations in agriculture," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 634-646, January.
    18. Camilla Adelle & Andrew Jordan & John Turnpenny, 2012. "Online Appendix for: “Proceeding in Parallel or Drifting Apart? A Systematic Review of Policy Appraisal Research and Practicesâ€," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 30(1), pages 1-1, February.
    19. Martin Schonhart & Thomas Schauppenlehner & Erwin Schmid & Andreas Muhar, 2011. "Analysing the maintenance and establishment of orchard meadows at farm and landscape levels applying a spatially explicit integrated modelling approach," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 115-143.
    20. Julia Hertin & John Turnpenny & Andrew Jordan & Mans Nilsson & Duncan Russel & Björn Nykvist, 2009. "Rationalising the policy mess? Ex ante policy assessment and the utilisation of knowledge in the policy process," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 41(5), pages 1185-1200, May.
    21. Uthes, Sandra & Sattler, Claudia & Zander, Peter & Piorr, Annette & Matzdorf, Bettina & Damgaard, Martin & Sahrbacher, Amanda & Schuler, Johannes & Kjeldsen, Chris & Heinrich, Uwe & Fischer, Holger, 2010. "Modeling a farm population to estimate on-farm compliance costs and environmental effects of a grassland extensification scheme at the regional scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(5), pages 282-293, June.
    22. Philippe Bontems & Gilles Rotillon & Nadine Turpin, 2008. "Acceptable reforms of agri-environmental policies," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 118(6), pages 847-883.
    23. Gabriele Dono & Raffaele Cortignani & Luca Doro & Luca Giraldo & Luigi Ledda & Massimiliano Pasqui & Pier Roggero, 2013. "An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Changing Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Profitability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3607-3622, August.
    24. Bamière, Laure & Havlík, Petr & Jacquet, Florence & Lherm, Michel & Millet, Guy & Bretagnolle, Vincent, 2011. "Farming system modelling for agri-environmental policy design: The case of a spatially non-aggregated allocation of conservation measures," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(5), pages 891-899, March.
    25. Dono, Gabriele & Giraldo, Luca & Severini, Simone, 2010. "Pricing of irrigation water under alternative charging methods: Possible shortcomings of a volumetric approach," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(11), pages 1795-1805, November.
    26. Robert M'barek & Wolfgang Britz & Alison Burrell & Jacques Delincé, 2012. "An integrated Modelling Platform for Agro-economic Commodity and Policy Analysis (iMAP) - a look back and the way forward," JRC Working Papers JRC69667, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    27. Camilla Adelle & Andrew Jordan & John Turnpenny, 2012. "Proceeding in Parallel or Drifting Apart? A Systematic Review of Policy Appraisal Research and Practices," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 30(3), pages 401-415, June.
    28. Lobianco, Antonello & Esposti, Roberto, 2010. "The Regional Multi-Agent Simulator (RegMAS): an open-source spatially explicit model to assess the impact of agricultural policies," MPRA Paper 25817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Bartolini, F. & Bazzani, G.M. & Gallerani, V. & Raggi, M. & Viaggi, D., 2007. "The impact of water and agriculture policy scenarios on irrigated farming systems in Italy: An analysis based on farm level multi-attribute linear programming models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-3), pages 90-114, March.
    30. Kathrin Happe & Hauke Schnicke & Christoph Sahrbacher & Konrad Kellermann, 2009. "Will They Stay or Will They Go? Simulating the Dynamics of Single-Holder Farms in a Dualistic Farm Structure in Slovakia," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(4), pages 497-511, December.
    31. Godard, C. & Roger-Estrade, J. & Jayet, P.A. & Brisson, N. & Le Bas, C., 2008. "Use of available information at a European level to construct crop nitrogen response curves for the regions of the EU," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 97(1-2), pages 68-82, April.
    32. Argyris Kanellopoulos & Paul Berentsen & Thomas Heckelei & Martin van Ittersum & Alfons Oude Lansink, 2010. "Assessing the Forecasting Performance of a Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model Calibrated With Two Different PMP Variants," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 274-294.
    33. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    34. Raffaele Cortignani & Simone Severini, 2012. "A constrained optimization model based on generalized maximum entropy to assess the impact of reforming agricultural policy on the sustainability of irrigated areas," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(6), pages 621-633, November.
    35. Frédéric Zahm & Philippe Viaux & Lionel Vilain & Philippe Girardin & Christian Mouchet, 2008. "Assessing farm sustainability with the IDEA method - from the concept of agriculture sustainability to case studies on farms," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 271-281.
    36. Schönhart, Martin & Schauppenlehner, Thomas & Schmid, Erwin & Muhar, Andreas, 2011. "Integration of bio-physical and economic models to analyze management intensity and landscape structure effects at farm and landscape level," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 122-134, February.
    37. Kampas, Athanasios & Petsakos, Athanasios & Rozakis, Stelios, 2012. "Price induced irrigation water saving: Unraveling conflicts and synergies between European agricultural and water policies for a Greek Water District," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 28-38.
    38. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 127-145, January.
    39. Szvetlana Acs & Paul Berentsen & Ruud Huirne & Marcel van Asseldonk, 2009. "Effect of yield and price risk on conversion from conventional to organic farming ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(3), pages 393-411, July.
    40. Marc Benoit & Gabriel Laignel, 2014. "Sheep-for-meat farming systems in French semi-upland area. Adapting to new context: increased concentrates and energy prices, and new agricultural policy," International Journal of Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 17(1), pages 35-48.
    41. Basil Manos & Thomas Bournaris & Jason Papathanasiou & Pathena Chatzinikolaou, 2010. "Tobacco decoupling impacts on income, employment and environment in European tobacco regions," International Journal of Business Innovation and Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(4), pages 281-297.
    42. Semaan, Josephine & Flichman, Guillermo & Scardigno, Alessandra & Steduto, Pasquale, 2007. "Analysis of nitrate pollution control policies in the irrigated agriculture of Apulia Region (Southern Italy): A bio-economic modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 357-367, May.
    43. Alexander, Peter & Moran, Dominic, 2013. "Impact of perennial energy crops income variability on the crop selection of risk averse farmers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 587-596.
    44. van Calker, K.J. & Berentsen, P.B.M. & Giesen, G.W.J. & Huirne, R.B.M., 2008. "Maximising sustainability of Dutch dairy farming systems for different stakeholders: A modelling approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 407-419, April.
    45. Roeder, Norbert & Lederbogen, Dirk & Trautner, Juergen & Bergamini, Ariel & Stofer, Silvia & Scheidegger, Christoph, 2010. "The impact of changing agricultural policies on jointly used rough pastures in the Bavarian Pre-Alps: An economic and ecological scenario approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2435-2447, October.
    46. Graveline, N. & Loubier, S. & Gleyses, G. & Rinaudo, J.-D., 2012. "Impact of farming on water resources: Assessing uncertainty with Monte Carlo simulations in a global change context," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 29-41.
    47. Richard E. Howitt, 1995. "Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 329-342.
    48. Davide Viaggi & Meri Raggi & Vittorio Gallerani & Sergio Paloma, 2010. "The impact of EU common agricultural policy decoupling on farm households: Income vs. investment effects," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 45(3), pages 188-192, May.
    49. Esteve, Paloma & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Downing, Thomas E., 2015. "A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 49-58.
    50. Camilla Adelle & Andrew Jordan & John Turnpenny, 2012. "Proceeding in parallel or drifting apart? A systematic review of policy appraisal research and practices," Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 30(3), pages 401-415, June.
    51. Kanellopoulos, A. & Gerdessen, J.C. & Claassen, G.D.H., 2015. "Compromise programming: Non-interactive calibration of utility-based metrics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(2), pages 519-524.
    52. Borges, P.J. & Fragoso, R. & Garcia-Gonzalo, J. & Borges, J.G. & Marques, S. & Lucas, M.R., 2010. "Assessing impacts of Common Agricultural Policy changes on regional land use patterns with a decision support system: An application in Southern Portugal," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 111-120, February.
    53. Moro, Daniele & Sckokai, Paolo, 2013. "The impact of decoupled payments on farm choices: Conceptual and methodological challenges," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 28-38.
    54. Paolo Sckokai & Daniele Moro, 2009. "Modelling the impact of the CAP Single Farm Payment on farm investment and output," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 395-423, September.
    55. van Ittersum, Martin K. & Ewert, Frank & Heckelei, Thomas & Wery, Jacques & Alkan Olsson, Johanna & Andersen, Erling & Bezlepkina, Irina & Brouwer, Floor & Donatelli, Marcello & Flichman, Guillermo & , 2008. "Integrated assessment of agricultural systems - A component-based framework for the European Union (SEAMLESS)," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-3), pages 150-165, March.
    56. Fleskens, Luuk & Graaff, Jan de, 2010. "Conserving natural resources in olive orchards on sloping land: Alternative goal programming approaches towards effective design of cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(8), pages 521-534, October.
    57. Jack Peerlings & Nico Polman, 2008. "Agri-environmental contracting of Dutch dairy farms: the role of manure policies and the occurrence of lock-in," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 167-191, June.
    58. Alison Burrell & Stephan Hubertus Gay & Aikaterini Kavallari, 2012. "The Compatibility of EU Biofuel Policies with Global Sustainability and the WTO," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 784-798, June.
    59. Kaufmann, Peter & Stagl, Sigrid & Franks, Daniel W., 2009. "Simulating the diffusion of organic farming practices in two New EU Member States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2580-2593, August.
    60. Kerselaers, Eva & De Cock, Lieve & Lauwers, Ludwig & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2007. "Modelling farm-level economic potential for conversion to organic farming," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 671-682, June.
    61. Wagner, Susanne & Angenendt, Elisabeth & Beletskaya, Olga & Zeddies, Jürgen, 2015. "Costs and benefits of ammonia and particulate matter abatement in German agriculture including interactions with greenhouse gas emissions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 58-68.
    62. Alexander Gocht & Wolfgang Britz & Pavel Ciaian & Sergio Gomez y Paloma, 2013. "Farm Type Effects of an EU-wide Direct Payment Harmonisation," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 1-32, February.
    63. Thia C. Hennessy & Tahir Rehman, 2008. "Assessing the Impact of the 'Decoupling' Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on Irish Farmers' Off-farm Labour Market Participation Decisions," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 41-56, February.
    64. Belhouchette, Hatem & Louhichi, Kamel & Therond, Olivier & Mouratiadou, Ioanna & Wery, Jacques & Ittersum, Martin van & Flichman, Guillermo, 2011. "Assessing the impact of the Nitrate Directive on farming systems using a bio-economic modelling chain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 135-145, February.
    65. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2010. "An integer programming dynamic farm-household model to evaluate the impact of agricultural policy reforms on farm investment behaviour," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 1130-1139, December.
    66. van de Ven, G.W.J. & van Keulen, H., 2007. "A mathematical approach to comparing environmental and economic goals in dairy farming: Identifying strategic development options," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 231-246, May.
    67. Jonathan Brooks & Mateusz Filipski & Erik Jonasson & J. Edward Taylor, 2011. "The Development Policy Evaluation Model (DEVPEM): Technical Documentation," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 51, OECD Publishing.
    68. Franco, Juan Agustín & Gaspar, Paula & Mesias, Francisco Javier, 2012. "Economic analysis of scenarios for the sustainability of extensive livestock farming in Spain under the CAP," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 120-129.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:159:y:2018:i:c:p:111-125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.