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An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Changing Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Profitability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Catchment

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Listed:
  • Gabriele Dono
  • Raffaele Cortignani
  • Luca Doro
  • Luca Giraldo
  • Luigi Ledda
  • Massimiliano Pasqui
  • Pier Roggero

Abstract

Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ET N ), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ET N may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriele Dono & Raffaele Cortignani & Luca Doro & Luca Giraldo & Luigi Ledda & Massimiliano Pasqui & Pier Roggero, 2013. "An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Changing Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Profitability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3607-3622, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:10:p:3607-3622
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0367-3
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    4. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Dell'Unto, Davide & Deligios, Paola & Doro, Luca & Lacetera, Nicola & Mula, Laura & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Quaresima, Sara & Vitali, Andrea & Roggero, Pier Paol, 2016. "Winners and losers from climate change in agriculture: Insights from a case study in the Mediterranean basin," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 65-75.
    5. Coderoni, Silvia & Pagliacci, Francesco, 2023. "The impact of climate change on land productivity. A micro-level assessment for Italian farms," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Karner, Katrin & Schmid, Erwin & Schneider, Uwe A. & Mitter, Hermine, 2021. "Computing stochastic Pareto frontiers between economic and environmental goals for a semi-arid agricultural production region in Austria," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    7. Reidsma, Pytrik & Janssen, Sander & Jansen, Jacques & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2018. "On the development and use of farm models for policy impact assessment in the European Union – A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 111-125.
    8. Xiaodong Ren & Diogo S. Martins & Zhongyi Qu & Paula Paredes & Luis S. Pereira, 2016. "Daily Reference Evapotranspiration for Hyper-Arid to Moist Sub-Humid Climates in Inner Mongolia, China: II. Trends of ETo and Weather Variables and Related Spatial Patterns," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(11), pages 3793-3814, September.
    9. Yiping Wu & Dongsheng Cheng & Wende Yan & Shuguang Liu & Wenhua Xiang & Ji Chen & Yueming Hu & Qian Wu, 2014. "Diagnosing Climate Change and Hydrological Responses in the Past Decades for a Minimally-disturbed Headwater Basin in South China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4385-4400, September.
    10. Gianfranco Giulioni & Edmondo Di Giuseppe & Piero Toscano & Francesco Miglietta & Massimiliano Pasqui, 2019. "A Novel Computational Model of the Wheat Global Market with an Application to the 2010 Russian Federation Case," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 22(3), pages 1-4.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discrete stochastic programming; Climate change variability; Adaptation to climate change; Net evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements; Water availability; EPIC crops model; Economic impact of climate change; Q15 - Irrigation; Agriculture and environment; Q54 - Climate; Global warming;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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