IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v102y2009i1-3p77-88.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A dynamic bio-economic model to simulate optimal adjustments of suckler cow farm management to production and market shocks in France

Author

Listed:
  • Mosnier, C.
  • Agabriel, J.
  • Lherm, M.
  • Reynaud, A.

Abstract

Tactical adjustments to seasonal weather conditions and beef price may generate additional income or avoid losses in French beef cattle farms. Due to the length of the suckler cow production cycle, adjustment decisions may impact not only on current production and profit but also on future farm outcomes. To better understand the consequences of shocks and subsequent production adjustments on the evolution of farm earnings and production over time, we built a dynamic recursive bio-economic farm model. Our model introduced simultaneously the possibility of adjusting herd size and herd composition, diet composition and diet energy content, as well as crop rotation, haymaking and feed stocks, taking into account both their short- and long-term consequences. An application is provided to test impacts of crop yield and beef price shocks of different intensities. Main simulated adjustments to face unfavourable weather shocks are (1) purchased feed in order to maintain animal production objectives, and (2) area of pasture harvested for haymaking. Very severe beef price shocks induce forced sales. Weather shocks affect farm net profit not only of the current year but also of the following years. Profit losses caused by unfavourable weather conditions are not compensated by gains in favourable ones and this differential is amplified when intensity of shocks rises.

Suggested Citation

  • Mosnier, C. & Agabriel, J. & Lherm, M. & Reynaud, A., 2009. "A dynamic bio-economic model to simulate optimal adjustments of suckler cow farm management to production and market shocks in France," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 102(1-3), pages 77-88, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:102:y:2009:i:1-3:p:77-88
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308-521X(09)00077-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nerlove, Marc & Bessler, David A., 2001. "Expectations, information and dynamics," Handbook of Agricultural Economics,in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 155-206 Elsevier.
    2. Darren L. Frechette, 2005. "How does aversion to intertemporal variation affect hedging behavior?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 389-398, November.
    3. Kingwell, Ross S., 1994. "Effects of Tactical Responses and Risk Aversion on Farm Wheat Supply," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(01), April.
    4. Lambert, David K., 1989. "Calf Retention And Production Decisions Over Time," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(01), July.
    5. Kobayashi, Mimako & Howitt, Richard E. & Jarvis, Lovell S. & Laca, Emilio A., 2007. "AJAE Appendix: Stochastic Rangeland Use Under Capital Constraints," American Journal of Agricultural Economics Appendices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), August.
    6. Emilio A. Laca, 2007. "Stochastic Rangeland Use under Capital Constraints," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 805-817.
    7. Gillard, Peter & Monypenny, Richard, 1990. "A decision support model to evaluate the effects of drought and stocking rate on beef cattle properties in Northern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 37-52.
    8. Barbier, B. & Bergeron, G., 1999. "Impact of policy interventions on land management in Honduras: results of a bioeconomic model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 1-16, May.
    9. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    10. Olson, Kent D. & Mikesell, Chris L., 1988. "The Range Stocking Decision And Stochastic Forage Production," Staff Papers 13502, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    11. Lence, Sergio H., 2000. "Using Consumption and Asset Return Data to Estimate Farmersï¾’ Time Preferences and Risk Attitudes," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1930, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Aude Ridier & Florence Jacquet, 2002. "Decoupling Direct Payments and the Dynamics of Decisions under Price Risk in Cattle Farms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 549-565.
    13. Herbert Dawid, 2005. "Long horizon versus short horizon planning in dynamic optimization problems with incomplete information," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(3), pages 575-597, April.
    14. Veysset, P. & Bebin, D. & Lherm, M., 2005. "Adaptation to Agenda 2000 (CAP reform) and optimisation of the farming system of French suckler cattle farms in the Charolais area: a model-based study," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 179-202, February.
    15. Pannell, David J. & Malcolm, Bill & Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 69-78, June.
    16. Iglesias, Eva & Garrido, Alberto & Gomez-Ramos, Almudena, 2003. "Evaluation of drought management in irrigated areas," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 211-229, October.
    17. Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robinson, Stephen D., 1993. "Tactical responses to seasonal conditions in whole-farm planning in Western Australia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 211-226, March.
    18. Janssen, Sander & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2007. "Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: A review of bio-economic farm models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 622-636, June.
    19. Mosnier, Claire & Ridier, Aude & Kphaliacos, Charilaos & Carpy-Goulard, Françoise, 2009. "Economic and environmental impact of the CAP mid-term review on arable crop farming in South-western France," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 1408-1416, March.
    20. Matthews, K.B. & Wright, I.A. & Buchan, K. & Davies, D.A. & Schwarz, G., 2006. "Assessing the options for upland livestock systems under CAP reform: Developing and applying a livestock systems model within whole-farm systems analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 32-61, October.
    21. Petr Havlík & Patrick Veysset & Jean-Marie Boisson & Michel Lherm & Florence Jacquet, 2005. "Joint production under uncertainty and multifunctionality of agriculture: policy considerations and applied analysis," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 489-515, December.
    22. Sullivan, G. M. & Cartwright, T. C. & Farris, D. E., 1981. "Simulation of production systems in East Africa by use of interfaced forage and cattle models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 245-265, December.
    23. Sergio H. Lence, 2000. "Using Consumption and Asset Return Data to Estimate Farmers' Time Preferences and Risk Attitudes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 934-947.
    24. Iglesias, Eva & Garrido, Alberto & Gomez-Ramos, Almudena, 2003. "Evaluation of drought management in irrigated areas," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 29(2), October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Giraldo, Luca & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, Pier Pao, 2014. "Income Impacts of Climate Change: Irrigated Farming in the Mediterranean and Expected Changes in Probability of Favorable and Adverse Weather Conditions," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(3).
    2. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Dell'Unto, Davide & Deligios, Paola & Doro, Luca & Lacetera, Nicola & Mula, Laura & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Quaresima, Sara & Vitali, Andrea & Roggero, Pier Paol, 2016. "Winners and losers from climate change in agriculture: Insights from a case study in the Mediterranean basin," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 65-75.
    3. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Doro, Luca & Giraldo, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, Pier Paolo, 2013. "Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Dono, Gabriele & Cortigiani, Raffaele & Dell'Unto, Davide, 2015. "Economic modelling of climate change scenarios and adaptation of Mediterranean agriculture," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207276, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    5. repec:eee:agisys:v:154:y:2017:i:c:p:168-178 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Komarek, Adam M. & Drogue, Sophie & Chenoune, Roza & Hawkins, James & Msangi, Siwa & Belhouchette, Hatem & Flichman, Guillermo, 2017. "Agricultural household effects of fertilizer price changes for smallholder farmers in central Malawi," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 168-178.
    7. Mosnier, Claire, 2014. "Would multi-peril grassland insurance improve French suckler cow farm sustainability?," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182786, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Giraldo, Luca & Doro, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, PierPaolo, 2012. "Evaluating productive and economic impacts of climate change variability on the farm sector of an irrigated Mediterranean area," 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy 126099, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Tsakiridis, Andreas & Breen, James & O'Donoghue, Cathal & Hanrahan, Kevin & Wallace, Michael & Crosson, Paul, 2016. "Flexibility of beef suckler cow systems under varying calf retention strategies," 90th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2016, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 236289, Agricultural Economics Society.
    10. repec:eee:agisys:v:157:y:2017:i:c:p:279-291 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ashfield, A. & Crosson, P. & Wallace, M., 2013. "Simulation modelling of temperate grassland based dairy calf to beef production systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 41-50.
    12. Martin, G., 2015. "A conceptual framework to support adaptation of farming systems – Development and application with Forage Rummy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 52-61.
    13. repec:eee:agisys:v:157:y:2017:i:c:p:202-215 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ridier, Aude & Chaib, Karim & Roussy, Caroline, 2016. "A Dynamic Stochastic Programming model of crop rotation choice to test the adoption of long rotation under price and production risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 270-279.
    15. Dieguez Cameroni, F.J. & Terra, R. & Tabarez, S. & Bommel, P. & Corral, J. & Bartaburu, D. & Pereira, M. & Montes, E. & Duarte, E. & Morales Grosskopf, H., 2014. "Virtual experiments using a participatory model to explore interactions between climatic variability and management decisions in extensive grazing systems in the basaltic region of Uruguay," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 89-104.
    16. Soraya Tanure & Carlos Nabinger & João Luiz Becker, 2015. "Bioeconomic Model of Decision Support System for Farm Management: Proposal of a Mathematical Model," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 658-671, November.
    17. Rose, G. & Mulder, H.A. & Thompson, A.N. & van der Werf, J.H.J. & van Arendonk, J.A.M., 2014. "Varying pasture growth and commodity prices change the value of traits in sheep breeding objectives," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 94-104.
    18. Mosnier, Claire & Agabriel, Jacques & Lherm, Michel & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2011. "On-farm weather risk management in suckler cow farms: A recursive discrete stochastic programming approach," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114645, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Leite, João Guilherme Dal Belo & Silva, João Vasco & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2014. "Integrated assessment of biodiesel policies aimed at family farms in Brazil," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 64-76.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:102:y:2009:i:1-3:p:77-88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.