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Using Consumption and Asset Return Data to Estimate Farmers' Time Preferences and Risk Attitudes

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  • Sergio H. Lence

Abstract

The generalized expected utility model is fitted to U.S. farm data to estimate farm operator's time preferences and risk attitudes. The estimated farmer's utility parameters are quite “reasonable” and exhibit high accuracy. The forward-looking expected utility model is soundly rejected in favor of the generalized expected utility paradigm. Importantly, the generalized expected utility model is also found to fit the data better than the myopic model typically used to study agricultural production under risk. Finally, U.S. farmers' relative aversion to risk appears to have diminished significantly over time Copyright 2000, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio H. Lence, 2000. "Using Consumption and Asset Return Data to Estimate Farmers' Time Preferences and Risk Attitudes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 934-947.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:82:y:2000:i:4:p:934-947
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/0002-9092.00092
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    Cited by:

    1. Teklewold, Hailemariam, 2011. "Farming or burning? shadow prices and farmer’s impatience on the allocation of multi-purpose resource in the mixed farming system of Ethiopia," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 116080, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Anton, Jesus & Le Mouel, Chantal, 2003. "Do Counter-Cyclical Payments In The Fsri Act Create Incentives To Produce?," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25811, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Johansson, Robert C. & Livingston, Michael J. & Westra, John V. & Guidry, Kurt M., 2006. "Simulating the U.S. Impacts of Alternative Asian Soybean Rust Treatment Regimes," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(1), April.
    4. repec:eee:eecrev:v:94:y:2017:i:c:p:45-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hardaker, J. Brian & Lien, Gudbrand, 2010. "Probabilities for decision analysis in agriculture and rural resource economics: The need for a paradigm change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(6), pages 345-350, July.
    6. Livingston, Michael J. & Roberts, Michael J. & Rust, John, 2008. "Optimal Corn and Soybean Rotations," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6213, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Xavier Vollenweider & Salvatore Di Falco & Cathal O�Donoghue, 2011. "Risk preferences and voluntary agrienvironmental schemes: does risk aversion explain the uptake of the Rural Environment Protection Scheme?," GRI Working Papers 48, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    8. Claassen, Roger & Cooper, Joseph C. & Carriazo, Fernando, 2011. "Crop Insurance, Disaster Payments and Land Use Change: The Effect of Sodsaver on Incentives for Grassland Conversion," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(02), May.
    9. Ragnar Tveteras & Ola Flaten & Gudbrand Lien, 2011. "Production risk in multi-output industries: estimates from Norwegian dairy farms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4403-4414.
    10. Myyrä, Sami, & Pietola, Kyosti & Heikkilä, Anna-Maija, 2011. "Farm Level Capital: Capital positions, structures, the dynamics of farm level investments, capital accumulation and leverage positions," Factor Markets Working Papers 105, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    11. repec:eee:eecrev:v:99:y:2017:i:c:p:5-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Pope, Rulon D. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Just, Richard E., 2011. "Agricultural arbitrage and risk preferences," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 35-43, May.
    13. Frechette, Darren L., 2003. "The Potential Value of Agricultural Trade Options," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 32(2), October.
    14. Wang, H. Holly & Du, Wen, 2005. "Intertemporal Risk Management Decisions of Farmers under Preference, Market, and Policy Dynamics," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Hailu, Getu & Jeffrey, Scott R. & Goddard, Ellen W., 2004. "Impact Of Decision Makers Divergence In Risk Attitudes And Perceptions On Co-Operative Management In Canada," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20246, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Ahearn, Mary Clare & Collender, Robert N. & Diao, Xinshen & Harrington, David H. & Hoppe, Robert A. & Korb, Penelope J. & Makki, Shiva S. & Morehart, Mitchell J. & Roberts, Michael J. & Roe, Terry L. , 2004. "Decoupled Payments In A Changing Policy Setting," Agricultural Economics Reports 33981, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    17. Filippo Lechthaler & Alexandra Vinogradova, 2016. "The Climate Challenge for Agriculture and the Value of Climate Services: Application to Coffee-Farming in Peru," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 16/231, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    18. Frechette, Darren L. & Wen, Fang-I, 2002. "Risk Aversion, Uncertainty Aversion, And Variation Aversion In Applied Commodity Price Analysis," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19062, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    19. Keith Coble & Jayson Lusk, 2010. "At the nexus of risk and time preferences: An experimental investigation," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 67-79, August.
    20. Mosnier, C. & Agabriel, J. & Lherm, M. & Reynaud, A., 2009. "A dynamic bio-economic model to simulate optimal adjustments of suckler cow farm management to production and market shocks in France," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 102(1-3), pages 77-88, October.
    21. Livingston, Michael & Fernandez-Cornejo, Jorge & Unger, Jesse & Osteen, Craig & Schimmelpfennig, David & Park, Tim & Lambert, Dayton, 2015. "The Economics of Glyphosate Resistance Management in Corn and Soybean Production," Economic Research Report 205083, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    22. Hermann, Daniel & Mußhoff, Oliver & Rüther, Dörte, 2015. "Measuring farmers' time preference: A comparison of methods," DARE Discussion Papers 1506, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    23. Anton, Jesus & Mouel, Chantal Le, 2004. "Do counter-cyclical payments in the 2002 US Farm Act create incentives to produce?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 277-284, December.
    24. Rose, G. & Mulder, H.A. & Thompson, A.N. & van der Werf, J.H.J. & van Arendonk, J.A.M., 2014. "Varying pasture growth and commodity prices change the value of traits in sheep breeding objectives," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 94-104.
    25. Howitt, Richard E. & Reynaud, Arnaud & Msangi, Siwa & Knapp, Keith C., 2002. "Calibrated Stochastic Dynamic Models for Resource Management," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19620, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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