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Expectations, information and dynamics

In: Handbook of Agricultural Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Nerlove, Marc
  • Bessler, David A.

Abstract

The role of expectations in the empirical analysis of agricultural supply is examined under the assumption of separation of expectations and constraints in dynamic decision making. Extrapolative, adaptive, implicit, rational and quasi-rational, and futures-based models of expectation formation are discussed. Empirical and experimental evidence for and against various models of expectation is summarized.

Suggested Citation

  • Nerlove, Marc & Bessler, David A., 2001. "Expectations, information and dynamics," Handbook of Agricultural Economics,in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 155-206 Elsevier.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:hagchp:1-03
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabienne Féménia & Alexandre Gohin, 2010. "Faut-il une intervention publique pour stabiliser les marchés agricoles ? Revue des questions non résolues," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 91(4), pages 435-456.
    2. Sunil Kanwar, 2004. "Relative Profitability, Supply Shifters and Dynamic Output Response:The Indian Foodgrains," Working papers 133, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    3. Féménia, Fabienne & Gohin, Alexandre, 2011. "Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies: The role of expectation schemes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1950-1958, July.
    4. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    5. Castro, Eduardo Rodrigues de & Teixeira, Erly Cardoso & Valdes, Constanza, 2012. "Sugar Cane Expansion: Does It Contribute To Amazon Deforestation?," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 131703, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Yu, Jisang & Smith, Aaron & Sumner, Daniel A., 2016. "The Effects of the Premium Subsidies in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program on Crop Acreage," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 236022, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Féménia, Fabienne & Gohin, Alexandre, 2013. "On the optimal implementation of agricultural policy reforms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 61-74.
    8. Umarov, Alisher & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2005. "Farmers' Subjective Yield Distributions: Calibration and Implications for Crop Insurance Valuation," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19396, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Sunil Kanwar, 2004. "Price Incentives, Nonprice factors, and Crop Supply Response:The Indian Cash Crops," Working papers 132, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    10. Kanwar, Sunil, 2006. "Relative profitability, supply shifters and dynamic output response, in a developing economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 67-88, January.
    11. Kristofersson, Dadi & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2005. "High-Grading in a Quota-Regulated Fishery, with Empirical Evidence from the Icelandic Cod Fishery," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24722, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Bareille, François & Dupraz, Pierre, 2016. "Biodiversity productive effects in milk farms of western France: a multi-output primal system," 149th Seminar, October 27-28, 2016, Rennes, France 244774, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149695, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Kim, Yun-Shik & Sumner, Daniel A., 2005. "Measuring Research Benefits With Import Ban Restrictions, Quality Changes, Non-Market Influences On Adoption And Food Security Incentives," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19148, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Pouliot, Sebastien, 2008. "Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Cattle Traceability: the Case of the Quebec Cattle Traceability System," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6522, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Mosnier, C. & Agabriel, J. & Lherm, M. & Reynaud, A., 2009. "A dynamic bio-economic model to simulate optimal adjustments of suckler cow farm management to production and market shocks in France," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 102(1-3), pages 77-88, October.
    17. Mark W. Nichols & Michael J. Radzicki, 2007. "An Agent-Based Model of Behavior in “Beauty Contest” Games," Working Papers 07-010, University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics;University of Nevada, Reno , Department of Resource Economics.
    18. Catherine Hausman, 2012. "Biofuels and Land Use Change: Sugarcane and Soybean Acreage Response in Brazil," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 163-187, February.
    19. Meszaros, Sandor, 2008. "Theory testing (hypothesis testing) in agricultural economics," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, issue 107, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General

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