Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigated Farming Systems
In the agricultural sector, climate change (CC) affects multiple weather variables at different stages of crop cycles. CC may influence the mean level or affect the distribution of events (e.g., rainfall, temperature). This work evaluates the economic impact of CC-related changes in multiple climatic components, and the resulting uncertainty. For this purpose, a three-stage discrete stochastic programming model is used to represents farm sector of an irrigated area of Italy and to examine the influence of CC on rainfall and on maximum temperature. These variables affect the availability of water for agriculture and the water requirements of irrigated crops. The states of nature, and their change, are defined more broadly than in previous analyses; this allows examining the changes of more climatic variables and crops cultivation. The effect of CC is obtained by comparing the results of scenarios that represent the climatic conditions in the current situation and in the future. The results show that the agricultural sector would seek to lower costs by modifying patterns of land use, farming practices and increasing the use groundwater. The overall economic impact of these changes is small and due primarily to the reduced availability of water in the future. The temperature increase is, in fact, largely offset by the effects of the increase in CO2 levels, which boosts the yield of main crops of the irrigated zone. Therefore, availability and water management becomes a crucial factor to offset the increase of evapotranspiration and of water stress resulting from the increase of temperature. However, the costs of CC are very high for some types of farming, which suffer a large reduction in income.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.eaae.orgEmail: |
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heinemann, A. B. & Hoogenboom, G. & de Faria, R. T., 2002. "Determination of spatial water requirements at county and regional levels using crop models and GIS: An example for the State of Parana, Brazil," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 177-196, January.
- Cortignani, Raffaele & Dono, Gabriele & Doro, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Mazzapicchio, Graziano, 2010. "An evaluation of the economic impact of Climate Change through a three-stages Discrete Stochastic Programming model," 120th Seminar, September 2-4, 2010, Chania, Crete 109317, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Ingham, Alan & Ma, Jie & Ulph, Alistair, 2007. "Climate change, mitigation and adaptation with uncertainty and learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5354-5369, November.
- Connor, Jeff & Schwabe, Kurt & King, Darran & Kaczan, David & Kirby, Mac, 2009.
"Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(3), September.
- Jeff Connor & Kurt Schwabe & Darran King & David Kaczan & Mac Kirby, 2009. "Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(3), pages 437-456, 07.
- Rinaldi, Michele, 2001. "Application of EPIC model for irrigation scheduling of sunflower in Southern Italy," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 185-196, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114436. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.