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Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation

Author

Listed:
  • Connor, Jeff
  • Schwabe, Kurt
  • King, Darran
  • Kaczan, David
  • Kirby, Mac

Abstract

This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia. A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and severe climate change scenarios involving 1, 2 and 4 C warming, and predict 13, 38 and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two-stage approach that simultaneously estimates short and long-run adjustments. The model accounts for a range of adaptive responses including: deficit irrigation, temporarily following of some areas, permanently reducing the irrigated area and changing the mix of crops. The results suggest that relatively low cost adaptation strategies are available for a moderate reduction in water availability and thus costs of such a reduction are likely to be relatively small. In more severe climate change scenarios greater costs are estimated. Adaptations predicted include a reduction in total area irrigated and investments in efficient irrigation. A shift away from perennial to annual crops is also predicted as the latter can be managed more profitably when water allocations in some years are very low.

Suggested Citation

  • Connor, Jeff & Schwabe, Kurt & King, Darran & Kaczan, David & Kirby, Mac, 2009. "Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(3), September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:161976
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Ejaz Qureshi & Jeff Connor & Mac Kirby & Mohammed Mainuddin, 2007. "Economic assessment of acquiring water for environmental flows in the Murray Basin ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 51(3), pages 283-303, September.
    2. Jayasuriya, Rohan T., 2004. "Modelling the regional and farm-level economic impacts of environmental flows for regulated rivers in NSW, Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 77-91, April.
    3. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph E. Aldy & Robert Stavins, 2011. "The Promise and Problems of Pricing Carbon: Theory and Experience," NBER Working Papers 17569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Elwin G. Smith & Mark E. Eiswerth & Terrence S. Veeman, 2010. "Current and Emerging Water Issues in Agriculture: An Overview," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(s1), pages 403-409, December.
    3. Zhou, Li & Turvey, Calum G., 2014. "Climate change, adaptation and China's grain production," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-89.
    4. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Giraldo, Luca & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, Pier Pao, 2014. "Income Impacts of Climate Change: Irrigated Farming in the Mediterranean and Expected Changes in Probability of Favorable and Adverse Weather Conditions," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(3).
    5. Lin Crase, 2010. "A Cautionary Note on the Use of Socio-Economic Analyses in Water Planning," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 29(1), pages 41-47, March.
    6. Connor, Jeffery D. & Kandulu, John M. & Bark, Rosalind H., 2014. "Irrigation revenue loss in Murray–Darling Basin drought: An econometric assessment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 163-170.
    7. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Giraldo, Luca & Doro, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, PierPaolo, 2012. "Evaluating productive and economic impacts of climate change variability on the farm sector of an irrigated Mediterranean area," 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy 126099, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. J. Kirby & Md. Mainuddin & M. Ahmad & L. Gao, 2013. "Simplified Monthly Hydrology and Irrigation Water Use Model to Explore Sustainable Water Management Options in the Murray-Darling Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4083-4097, September.
    9. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Doro, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Roggero, PierPaolo & Giraldo, Luca & Severini, Simone, 2011. "Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigated Farming Systems," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114436, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Mukherjee, Monobina & Schwabe, Kurt A., 2012. "Valuing Access To Multiple Water Supply Sources In Irrigated Agriculture With A Hedonic Pricing Model," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124604, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Kahil, Mohamed Taher & Albiac, Jose & Dinar, Ariel, 2014. "The Debate on Water Policies: Evidence from Drought in Spain," Working Papers 206460, Agrifood Research and Technology Center (CITA-Government of Aragon), Department of Agricultural Economics.
    12. Gabriele Dono & Raffaele Cortignani & Luca Doro & Luca Giraldo & Luigi Ledda & Massimiliano Pasqui & Pier Roggero, 2013. "An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Changing Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Profitability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3607-3622, August.
    13. Grafton, Rupert & Jiang, Qiang, 2011. "Economic effects of water recovery on irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(4), December.
    14. repec:wsi:wepxxx:v:03:y:2017:i:01:n:s2382624x16500363 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jiang, Qiang & Grafton, R. Quentin, 2012. "Economic effects of climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 10-16.
    16. repec:eee:agiwat:v:196:y:2018:i:c:p:114-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:bla:econpa:v:36:y:2017:i:3:p:289-299 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Cockfield, Geoff & White, Neil & Jakeman, Guy, 2014. "Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 34-42.
    19. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Dell'Unto, Davide & Deligios, Paola & Doro, Luca & Lacetera, Nicola & Mula, Laura & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Quaresima, Sara & Vitali, Andrea & Roggero, Pier Paol, 2016. "Winners and losers from climate change in agriculture: Insights from a case study in the Mediterranean basin," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 65-75.
    20. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Doro, Luca & Giraldo, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, Pier Paolo, 2013. "Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-12.
    21. Palazzo, Amanda & Brozović, Nicholas, 2014. "The role of groundwater trading in spatial water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 50-60.
    22. repec:eee:agiwat:v:199:y:2018:i:c:p:148-156 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Dono, Gabriele & Cortigiani, Raffaele & Dell'Unto, Davide, 2015. "Economic modelling of climate change scenarios and adaptation of Mediterranean agriculture," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207276, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).

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