IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea14/170648.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Raising the Temperature on Food Prices: Climate Change, Food Security, and the Social Cost of Carbon

Author

Listed:
  • Howard, Peter
  • Sterner, Thomas

Abstract

Climate change will directly affect food availability and security. Because food production is fundamentally a biological process that is a function, in part, of temperature and moisture, the agricultural sector’s potential vulnerability is particularly large. While there is ongoing scientific debate over the magnitude of the effect of climate change on overall agricultural production, the welfare effects of increased food insecurity could be substantial. This is because food is a necessary good, such that climate change driven food shortages could significantly raise food costs relative to traditionally manufactured goods. However, U.S. policymakers rely on climate change models that do not reflect these fundamental differences between agriculture and other economic sectors. This paper modifies DICE-2010, an integrative assessment model, by disaggregating agricultural goods from the aggregate consumption good and updating the agricultural damage function. By more accurately measuring the cost of potential food shortages due to climate change and similar shortages in non-market goods, we find that the social cost of carbon increases by a magnitude of approximately one-third In preliminary results.

Suggested Citation

  • Howard, Peter & Sterner, Thomas, 2014. "Raising the Temperature on Food Prices: Climate Change, Food Security, and the Social Cost of Carbon," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170648, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:170648
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.170648
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/170648/files/PeterHHoward_AAEA2014_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daisuke Ishikawa & Junji Ueda & Real Arai, 2012. "Future Changes of the Industrial Structure due to Aging and Soaring Demands for Healthcare Services in Japan - an Analysis Using a Multi-Sector OLG Model in an Open Economy -," Discussion papers ron243, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    2. L. Gutierrez & M. M. Gutierrez, 2003. "International R&D spillovers and productivity growth in the agricultural sector. A panel cointegration approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 281-303, September.
    3. Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2016. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 108-140.
    4. Freeman, Jody & Guzman, Andrew, 2009. "Seawalls Are Not Enough: Climate Change & U.S. Interests," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt33s1x1jz, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    5. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    6. Dinar, A. & Mendelsohn, R. & Evenson, R. & Parikh, J. & Sanghi, A. & Kumar, K. & McKinsey, J. & Lonergen, S., 1998. "Measuring the Impact of CLimate Change on Indian Agriculture," Papers 402, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    7. Claudio Bravo-Ortega & Daniel Lederman, 2004. "Agricultural productivity and its determinants: revisiting international experiences," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2 Year 20), pages 133-163, December.
    8. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
    9. Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2016. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 108-140.
    10. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Neumayer, Eric, 1999. "Global warming: discounting is not the issue, but substitutability is," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 33-43, January.
    13. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    14. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2011. "Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 305-323, May.
    15. Hayami, Yujiro & Ruttan, Vernon W, 1970. "Agricultural Productivity Differences Among Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 895-911, December.
    16. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
    17. Barbara J. Craig & Philip G. Pardey & Johannes Roseboom, 1997. "International Productivity Patterns: Accounting for Input Quality, Infrastructure, and Research," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1064-1076.
    18. Gerlagh, Reyer & van der Zwaan, B. C. C., 2002. "Long-Term Substitutability between Environmental and Man-Made Goods," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 329-345, September.
    19. repec:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:55-56:p:19 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "The Eonomic Impact Of More Sustainable Water Use In Agriculture: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-169, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Dec 2008.
    21. Yair Mundlak & Donald F. Larson & Rita Butzer, 1999. "Rethinking Within and Between Regressions: The Case of Agricultural Production Functions," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 55-56, pages 475-501.
    22. Lau, Lawrence J. & Yotopoulos, Pan A., 1989. "The meta-production function approach to technological change in world agriculture," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 241-269, October.
    23. William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037.
    24. Kawagoe, Toshihiko & Hayami, Yujiro & Ruttan, Vernon W., 1985. "The intercountry agricultural production function and productivity differences among countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 113-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brèteau-Amores, Sandrine & Brunette, Marielle & Davi, Hendrik, 2019. "An Economic Comparison of Adaptation Strategies Towards a Drought-induced Risk of Forest Decline," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:170648. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.