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The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries

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  • Richard Tol

Abstract

The national version of FUND3.6 is used to backcast the impacts of climate change to the 20th century and extrapolate to the 21st century. Carbon dioxide fertilization of crops and reduced energy demand for heating are the main positive impacts. Climate change had a negative effect on water resources and, in most years, human health. Most countries benefitted from climate change until 1980, but after that the trend is negative for poor countries and positive for rich countries. The global average impact was positive in the 20th century. In the 21st century, impacts turn negative in most countries, rich and poor. Energy demand, water resources, biodiversity and sea level rise are the main negative impacts; the impacts of climate change on human health and agriculture remain positive until 2100. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Richard Tol, 2013. "The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 795-808, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:117:y:2013:i:4:p:795-808
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0613-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Channing Arndt, 2015. "Development Assistance and Climate Finance," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-029, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Peter Harrison Howard & Derek Sylvan, 2020. "Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 213-232, September.
    3. Richard S.J. Tol & Francisco Estrada, 2013. "Estimating the Global Impacts of Climate Variability and Change During the 20th Century," Working Paper Series 6213, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Nicholas Kilimani & Jan van Heerden & Heinrich Bohlmann & Louise Roos, 2016. "Counting the Cost of Drought Induced Productivity Losses in an Agro-Based Economy: The Case of Uganda," Working Papers 201649, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Schultes, Anselm & Piontek, Franziska & Soergel, Bjoern & Rogelj, Joeri & Baumstark, Lavinia & Kriegler, Elmar & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Luderer, Gunnar, 2020. "Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts," MPRA Paper 103655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    7. Veronika Huber & Dolores Ibarreta & Katja Frieler, 2017. "Cold- and heat-related mortality: a cautionary note on current damage functions with net benefits from climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 407-418, June.
    8. Stefano Mainardi, 2021. "Preference heterogeneity, neighbourhood effects and basic services: logit kernel models for farmers’ climate adaptation in Ethiopia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 6869-6912, May.
    9. Francisco Estrada & Richard S. J. Tol, 2015. "Toward Impact Functions For Stochastic Climate Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-13, November.
    10. Nhamo, Luxon & Matchaya, Greenwell & Mabhaudhi, T. & Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso & Nhemachena, Charles & Mpandeli, S., "undated". "Cereal production trends under climate change: impacts and adaptation strategies in Southern Africa," Papers published in Journals (Open Access) H049086, International Water Management Institute.
    11. Nilsson, Pia & Backman, Mikaela & Bjerke, Lina & Maniriho, Aristide, 2019. "One cow per poor family: Effects on the growth of consumption and crop production," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-12.
    12. Michee Arnold Lachaud & Boris E. Bravo-Ureta & Carlos E. Ludena, 2017. "Agricultural productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity and climatic effects," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 445-460, August.
    13. Davidson, Marc D., 2014. "Zero discounting can compensate future generations for climate damage," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 40-47.
    14. Germán Augusto Forero Cantor & Juan Pablo Saldarriaga Muñoz & Melissa Vargas Romero, 2017. "Cambio climático: impactos y perspectivas de investigación desde una visión multidisciplinar," REVISTA TENDENCIAS, Universidad de Nariño, vol. 18(2), pages 122-138, November.
    15. Tomoko Hasegawa & Shinichiro Fujimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Tokuta Yokohata & Toshihiko Masui, 2016. "Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 189-202, May.
    16. Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2017. "Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 60-82.
    17. Teotónio, Carla & Rodríguez, Miguel & Roebeling, Peter & Fortes, Patrícia, 2020. "Water competition through the ‘water-energy’ nexus: Assessing the economic impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean context," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    18. Francisco Estrada & Richard S J Tol & Wouter J W Botzen, 2017. "Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, February.
    19. Sahoo, Amarendra & Shiferaw, Bekele & Gbegbelegbe, Sika, 2016. "Economywide impacts of promising agricultural technologies on food security and welfare in Kenya," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246960, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    20. Channing Arndt, 2015. "Development assistance and climate finance," WIDER Working Paper Series 029, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Thompson, Wyatt & Lu, Yaqiong & Gerlt, Scott & Yang, Xianyu & Campbell, J. Elliott & Kueppers, Lara M. & Snyder, Mark A., 2018. "Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 98-105.
    22. Thomas Longden, 2019. "The impact of temperature on mortality across different climate zones," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 221-242, November.
    23. Thomas Longden, 2018. "Measuring temperature-related mortality using endogenously determined thresholds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 343-375, October.
    24. Peter Harrison Howard & Derek Sylvan, 0. "Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-20.

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