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The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries

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  • Richard Tol

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Abstract

The national version of FUND3.6 is used to backcast the impacts of climate change to the 20th century and extrapolate to the 21st century. Carbon dioxide fertilization of crops and reduced energy demand for heating are the main positive impacts. Climate change had a negative effect on water resources and, in most years, human health. Most countries benefitted from climate change until 1980, but after that the trend is negative for poor countries and positive for rich countries. The global average impact was positive in the 20th century. In the 21st century, impacts turn negative in most countries, rich and poor. Energy demand, water resources, biodiversity and sea level rise are the main negative impacts; the impacts of climate change on human health and agriculture remain positive until 2100. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Tol, 2013. "The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 795-808, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:117:y:2013:i:4:p:795-808
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0613-3
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-012-0613-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard S.J. Tol & Francisco Estrada, 2013. "Estimating the Global Impacts of Climate Variability and Change During the 20th Century," Working Paper Series 6213, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    2. Nicholas Kilimani & Jan van Heerden & Heinrich Bohlmann & Louise Roos, 2016. "Counting the cost of drought induced productivity losses in an agro-based economy: The case of Uganda," Working Papers 616, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    3. repec:spr:climat:v:143:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2013-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Davidson, Marc D., 2014. "Zero discounting can compensate future generations for climate damage," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 40-47.
    5. Tomoko Hasegawa & Shinichiro Fujimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Tokuta Yokohata & Toshihiko Masui, 2016. "Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 189-202, May.
    6. Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2014. "50 years of urbanization in Africa : examining the role of climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6925, The World Bank.
    7. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    8. repec:spr:climat:v:142:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1956-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sahoo, Amarendra & Shiferaw, Bekele & Gbegbelegbe, Sika, 2016. "Economywide impacts of promising agricultural technologies on food security and welfare in Kenya," 2016 AAAE Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246960, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    10. Arndt Channing, 2015. "Development Assistance and Climate Finance," WIDER Working Paper Series 029, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Francisco Estrada & Richard S. J. Tol, 2015. "Toward Impact Functions For Stochastic Climate Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-13, November.

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