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The economic impact of climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries

  • Richard Tol


The national version of FUND3.6 is used to backcast the impacts of climate change to the 20th century and extrapolate to the 21st century. Carbon dioxide fertilization of crops and reduced energy demand for heating are the main positive impacts. Climate change had a negative effect on water resources and, in most years, human health. Most countries benefitted from climate change until 1980, but after that the trend is negative for poor countries and positive for rich countries. The global average impact was positive in the 20th century. In the 21st century, impacts turn negative in most countries, rich and poor. Energy demand, water resources, biodiversity and sea level rise are the main negative impacts; the impacts of climate change on human health and agriculture remain positive until 2100. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.

Volume (Year): 117 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 795-808

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Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:117:y:2013:i:4:p:795-808
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  1. Julien Fouquau, 2007. "The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: a threshold panel approach," Post-Print halshs-00224319, HAL.
  2. Tol, Richard S. J. & Narita, Daiju & Anthoff, David, 2008. "Damage Costs of Climate Change through Intensification of Tropical Cyclone Activities: An Application of FUND," Papers WP259, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Fabian Barthel & Eric Neumayer, 2010. "Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: a global analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37601, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Moral-Carcedo, Julian & Vicens-Otero, Jose, 2005. "Modelling the non-linear response of Spanish electricity demand to temperature variations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 477-494, May.
  5. Narita, Daiju & Tol, Richard S. J. & Anthoff, David, 2009. "Economic Costs of Extratropical Storms Under Climate Change: An Application of FUND," Papers WP274, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  6. Tol, Richard S. J., 2001. "Equitable cost-benefit analysis of climate change policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 71-85, January.
  7. Samuel Fankhauser & Richard Tol & DAVID Pearce, 1997. "The Aggregation of Climate Change Damages: a Welfare Theoretic Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(3), pages 249-266, October.
  8. Considine, Timothy J., 2000. "The impacts of weather variations on energy demand and carbon emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 295-314, October.
  9. Sailor, David J. & Muñoz, J.Ricardo, 1997. "Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 987-998.
  10. Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
  11. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
  12. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-37, July.
  13. Henley, Andrew & Peirson, John, 1998. "Residential energy demand and the interaction of price and temperature: British experimental evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 157-171, April.
  14. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
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